1.3% edge · New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies win
43.6%
New York Mets win
56.4%
Fair line (home)
-129
Proj. total
8.59
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.10)New York Mets (mean 4.49)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.59
Over
36.6%
Under
53.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 43.6% | +118 | +129 |
| New York Mets | 56.4% | -128 | -129 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.8 | .798 | .181 | .021 | .134 | .325 | .961 | .258 | .315 | .400 | .715 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.6 | .428 | .114 | .008 | .283 | .705 | 1.442 | .215 | .344 | .467 | .811 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.5 | .592 | .199 | .009 | .209 | .608 | 1.006 | .259 | .363 | .476 | .839 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.4 | .677 | .180 | .026 | .120 | .404 | 1.271 | .250 | .323 | .398 | .722 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.3 | .678 | .148 | .028 | .099 | .385 | .775 | .243 | .316 | .371 | .688 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 4.2 | .625 | .159 | .015 | .115 | .175 | 1.026 | .230 | .276 | .364 | .639 |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 4.1 | .478 | .137 | .010 | .109 | .430 | 1.187 | .202 | .293 | .334 | .628 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.0 | .686 | .144 | .022 | .057 | .294 | .880 | .247 | .308 | .345 | .653 |
| Rafael Marchán | 3.9 | .517 | .131 | .012 | .085 | .284 | .766 | .211 | .281 | .326 | .607 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 4.7 | .763 | .182 | .024 | .109 | .382 | 1.018 | .256 | .325 | .388 | .713 |
| Juan Soto | 4.5 | .622 | .149 | .017 | .223 | .879 | .750 | .278 | .421 | .513 | .934 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.4 | .866 | .205 | .014 | .102 | .295 | .731 | .289 | .340 | .420 | .759 |
| Francisco Lindor | 4.3 | .665 | .161 | .017 | .139 | .383 | .801 | .254 | .335 | .412 | .747 |
| Jared Young | 4.2 | .629 | .175 | .016 | .133 | .397 | 1.026 | .253 | .334 | .414 | .748 |
| Mark Vientos | 4.1 | .607 | .172 | .009 | .161 | .279 | 1.023 | .249 | .307 | .426 | .732 |
| A.J. Ewing | 4.0 | .707 | .161 | .033 | .036 | .411 | .966 | .263 | .343 | .356 | .700 |
| Brett Baty | 3.9 | .616 | .133 | .015 | .105 | .350 | .986 | .247 | .319 | .382 | .701 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 3.8 | .520 | .139 | .009 | .150 | .365 | .914 | .243 | .324 | .423 | .747 |
Data notes: home starter Christian Scott: only 69 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Tim Mayza: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Tim Mayza: only 73 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections