17.0% edge · New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies win
50.2%
New York Mets win
49.8%
Fair line (home)
+101
Proj. total
8.71
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.48)New York Mets (mean 4.22)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.71
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 50.2% | -238 | -101 |
| New York Mets | 49.8% | +191 | +101 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.8 | .848 | .200 | .025 | .129 | .326 | .883 | .270 | .325 | .413 | .738 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.7 | .463 | .123 | .012 | .299 | .700 | 1.324 | .227 | .351 | .491 | .842 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.6 | .637 | .214 | .010 | .208 | .629 | .936 | .271 | .375 | .488 | .863 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.5 | .796 | .189 | .017 | .118 | .315 | .666 | .270 | .328 | .410 | .738 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.4 | .707 | .187 | .028 | .120 | .414 | 1.137 | .263 | .337 | .416 | .752 |
| Derek Hill | 4.3 | .641 | .141 | .014 | .111 | .278 | 1.203 | .229 | .287 | .356 | .643 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.2 | .628 | .165 | .012 | .114 | .280 | .940 | .240 | .302 | .379 | .680 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.0 | .662 | .149 | .025 | .089 | .360 | .651 | .252 | .323 | .379 | .702 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 3.9 | .607 | .159 | .015 | .112 | .167 | .879 | .240 | .285 | .382 | .666 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 4.6 | .745 | .174 | .021 | .132 | .319 | 1.126 | .255 | .315 | .400 | .715 |
| Juan Soto | 4.5 | .627 | .154 | .015 | .245 | .729 | .891 | .280 | .401 | .528 | .930 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.4 | .824 | .198 | .013 | .123 | .253 | .833 | .284 | .330 | .429 | .759 |
| Francisco Lindor | 4.3 | .650 | .161 | .018 | .164 | .330 | .908 | .258 | .330 | .437 | .767 |
| Jared Young | 4.2 | .594 | .174 | .016 | .151 | .337 | 1.135 | .248 | .320 | .423 | .743 |
| A.J. Ewing | 4.1 | .704 | .159 | .028 | .044 | .331 | 1.119 | .253 | .319 | .346 | .666 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 4.0 | .607 | .134 | .009 | .138 | .197 | 1.110 | .239 | .285 | .392 | .677 |
| Brett Baty | 3.8 | .594 | .132 | .013 | .119 | .277 | 1.103 | .243 | .303 | .389 | .693 |
| Luis Torrens | 3.7 | .553 | .161 | .007 | .090 | .207 | .925 | .235 | .288 | .364 | .651 |
Data notes: home starter Zach Thornton: only 7 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Zach Thornton: only 12 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections