2.3% edge · New York Mets
Chicago Cubs win
46.9%
New York Mets win
53.0%
Fair line (home)
-113
Proj. total
8.19
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago Cubs (mean 4.04)New York Mets (mean 4.16)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.19
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 46.9% | -101 | +113 |
| New York Mets | 53.0% | -107 | -113 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.8 | .635 | .178 | .041 | .185 | .332 | 1.275 | .237 | .301 | .422 | .723 |
| Michael Conforto | 4.7 | .539 | .170 | .009 | .140 | .552 | 1.333 | .211 | .314 | .360 | .674 |
| Michael Busch | 4.6 | .549 | .162 | .027 | .165 | .576 | 1.217 | .229 | .336 | .410 | .747 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.5 | .640 | .151 | .012 | .133 | .530 | .748 | .241 | .340 | .389 | .729 |
| Ian Happ | 4.4 | .493 | .148 | .014 | .138 | .611 | 1.253 | .214 | .331 | .373 | .704 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.2 | .781 | .170 | .011 | .059 | .344 | .437 | .267 | .337 | .363 | .701 |
| Pedro Ramírez | 4.1 | .694 | .134 | .021 | .059 | .313 | .886 | .240 | .305 | .334 | .639 |
| Miguel Amaya | 4.0 | .521 | .134 | .008 | .105 | .360 | .947 | .214 | .298 | .343 | .641 |
| Dansby Swanson | 3.9 | .513 | .118 | .013 | .114 | .402 | 1.076 | .218 | .302 | .358 | .660 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 4.6 | .705 | .168 | .020 | .123 | .369 | .992 | .245 | .315 | .385 | .700 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.5 | .813 | .196 | .015 | .133 | .301 | .746 | .280 | .333 | .432 | .765 |
| Juan Soto | 4.3 | .556 | .129 | .014 | .242 | .822 | .739 | .269 | .411 | .522 | .932 |
| Mark Vientos | 4.3 | .586 | .155 | .011 | .195 | .299 | 1.071 | .242 | .302 | .437 | .739 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 4.1 | .526 | .134 | .008 | .194 | .396 | 1.004 | .233 | .315 | .431 | .746 |
| A.J. Ewing | 4.0 | .675 | .153 | .030 | .041 | .402 | .997 | .249 | .329 | .342 | .671 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 3.9 | .580 | .129 | .006 | .134 | .215 | 1.011 | .231 | .281 | .378 | .659 |
| MJ Melendez | 3.8 | .413 | .136 | .018 | .131 | .340 | 1.121 | .203 | .282 | .368 | .650 |
| Brett Baty | 3.7 | .541 | .114 | .011 | .114 | .317 | .958 | .233 | .304 | .376 | .681 |
Data notes: away starter Matthew Boyd: only 19 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections