3.7% edge · New York Mets
Chicago Cubs win
50.1%
New York Mets win
49.9%
Fair line (home)
+100
Proj. total
8.61
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago Cubs (mean 4.43)New York Mets (mean 4.18)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.61
Over
36.9%
Under
52.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 50.1% | -121 | -100 |
| New York Mets | 49.9% | +112 | +100 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.9 | .664 | .185 | .040 | .177 | .367 | 1.234 | .240 | .307 | .419 | .726 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.8 | .684 | .166 | .014 | .135 | .599 | .755 | .244 | .347 | .390 | .737 |
| Michael Busch | 4.6 | .578 | .161 | .032 | .171 | .612 | 1.171 | .238 | .348 | .424 | .772 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.5 | .593 | .163 | .018 | .163 | .563 | 1.199 | .238 | .338 | .413 | .751 |
| Ian Happ | 4.4 | .505 | .155 | .016 | .145 | .656 | 1.186 | .220 | .343 | .387 | .729 |
| Matt Shaw | 4.3 | .591 | .159 | .018 | .115 | .463 | .878 | .231 | .321 | .373 | .694 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.2 | .805 | .179 | .014 | .050 | .355 | .407 | .276 | .347 | .370 | .717 |
| Carson Kelly | 4.1 | .603 | .124 | .009 | .115 | .449 | .835 | .236 | .327 | .371 | .698 |
| Dansby Swanson | 4.0 | .537 | .126 | .015 | .116 | .421 | 1.032 | .224 | .310 | .366 | .675 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 4.5 | .711 | .173 | .022 | .149 | .311 | 1.001 | .253 | .311 | .412 | .722 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.4 | .792 | .182 | .013 | .147 | .251 | .757 | .273 | .318 | .430 | .747 |
| Juan Soto | 4.3 | .566 | .142 | .014 | .277 | .697 | .755 | .278 | .397 | .556 | .953 |
| Marcus Semien | 4.2 | .604 | .142 | .009 | .163 | .323 | .758 | .237 | .300 | .404 | .704 |
| Mark Vientos | 4.1 | .567 | .150 | .008 | .215 | .239 | 1.048 | .245 | .294 | .456 | .750 |
| Eric Wagaman | 4.0 | .588 | .149 | .019 | .131 | .247 | .922 | .237 | .288 | .393 | .681 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 3.9 | .498 | .126 | .010 | .210 | .320 | .947 | .240 | .310 | .460 | .770 |
| A.J. Ewing | 3.8 | .635 | .140 | .024 | .052 | .318 | .930 | .249 | .316 | .349 | .665 |
| Zack Short | 3.6 | .393 | .110 | .006 | .079 | .389 | 1.073 | .182 | .276 | .293 | .569 |
Data notes: home starter Kodai Senga: only 54 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kodai Senga: only 60 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections