1.5% edge · New York Mets
Chicago Cubs win
48.5%
New York Mets win
51.5%
Fair line (home)
-106
Proj. total
8.74
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago Cubs (mean 4.38)New York Mets (mean 4.36)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.74
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 48.5% | -104 | +106 |
| New York Mets | 51.5% | -104 | -106 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.9 | .654 | .184 | .045 | .176 | .366 | 1.224 | .239 | .308 | .421 | .729 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.8 | .694 | .171 | .012 | .132 | .590 | .747 | .246 | .348 | .390 | .738 |
| Michael Busch | 4.6 | .565 | .168 | .029 | .161 | .634 | 1.175 | .234 | .348 | .413 | .761 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.5 | .604 | .164 | .016 | .162 | .581 | 1.175 | .241 | .343 | .415 | .758 |
| Ian Happ | 4.4 | .514 | .154 | .014 | .130 | .655 | 1.223 | .218 | .340 | .371 | .711 |
| Matt Shaw | 4.3 | .604 | .163 | .018 | .117 | .445 | .864 | .235 | .321 | .379 | .700 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.2 | .773 | .171 | .014 | .051 | .368 | .404 | .267 | .342 | .360 | .702 |
| Carson Kelly | 4.1 | .592 | .125 | .006 | .113 | .444 | .840 | .232 | .324 | .364 | .688 |
| Dansby Swanson | 4.0 | .520 | .123 | .017 | .104 | .430 | 1.046 | .217 | .305 | .350 | .655 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 4.7 | .722 | .184 | .022 | .119 | .434 | 1.072 | .251 | .330 | .391 | .721 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.5 | .815 | .198 | .014 | .123 | .358 | .804 | .277 | .339 | .420 | .759 |
| Juan Soto | 4.4 | .572 | .130 | .012 | .219 | .957 | .786 | .270 | .432 | .505 | .937 |
| Jared Young | 4.3 | .569 | .162 | .015 | .147 | .468 | 1.105 | .235 | .330 | .401 | .731 |
| A.J. Ewing | 4.2 | .710 | .155 | .026 | .042 | .478 | 1.079 | .251 | .341 | .340 | .681 |
| Marcus Semien | 4.1 | .587 | .138 | .009 | .121 | .424 | .768 | .233 | .317 | .374 | .691 |
| Brett Baty | 4.0 | .588 | .122 | .014 | .116 | .406 | 1.081 | .234 | .318 | .373 | .690 |
| MJ Melendez | 3.9 | .429 | .148 | .015 | .131 | .396 | 1.190 | .208 | .296 | .372 | .668 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 3.8 | .475 | .119 | .008 | .160 | .413 | .969 | .229 | .322 | .414 | .736 |
Data notes: home starter Kodai Senga: only 54 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kodai Senga: only 60 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections