2.9% edge · Minnesota Twins
Colorado Rockies win
36.9%
Minnesota Twins win
63.1%
Fair line (home)
-171
Proj. total
10.03
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Colorado Rockies (mean 4.44)Minnesota Twins (mean 5.60)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
10.03
Over
49.6%
Under
40.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 36.9% | +146 | +171 |
| Minnesota Twins | 63.1% | -159 | -171 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.8 | .861 | .183 | .067 | .091 | .347 | .848 | .273 | .334 | .407 | .740 |
| Mickey Moniak | 4.7 | .686 | .189 | .056 | .212 | .253 | 1.164 | .260 | .306 | .473 | .779 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.6 | .593 | .191 | .019 | .242 | .325 | 1.278 | .248 | .307 | .475 | .782 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.5 | .734 | .178 | .015 | .124 | .402 | .851 | .262 | .338 | .407 | .745 |
| Willi Castro | 4.4 | .690 | .168 | .028 | .092 | .370 | 1.032 | .250 | .330 | .378 | .708 |
| Troy Johnston | 4.3 | .710 | .198 | .021 | .089 | .308 | .890 | .261 | .324 | .391 | .715 |
| Cole Carrigg | 4.1 | .697 | .145 | .071 | .083 | .281 | .912 | .261 | .319 | .401 | .720 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 4.0 | .626 | .196 | .022 | .116 | .222 | .992 | .253 | .298 | .408 | .706 |
| Edouard Julien | 3.9 | .575 | .132 | .019 | .093 | .521 | 1.100 | .244 | .350 | .378 | .728 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 4.7 | .877 | .235 | .021 | .169 | .436 | .766 | .307 | .378 | .492 | .870 |
| Byron Buxton | 4.6 | .713 | .230 | .044 | .318 | .313 | .889 | .309 | .365 | .610 | .975 |
| Kody Clemens | 4.5 | .741 | .224 | .045 | .219 | .273 | .747 | .295 | .346 | .528 | .874 |
| Josh Bell | 4.4 | .821 | .186 | .014 | .182 | .361 | .639 | .302 | .366 | .493 | .859 |
| Victor Caratini | 4.3 | .868 | .166 | .010 | .140 | .280 | .565 | .304 | .365 | .459 | .824 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.2 | .733 | .203 | .007 | .212 | .283 | .682 | .299 | .351 | .520 | .871 |
| Brooks Lee | 4.1 | .778 | .181 | .025 | .149 | .223 | .488 | .298 | .342 | .476 | .818 |
| Tristan Gray | 3.9 | .647 | .195 | .021 | .147 | .222 | .878 | .274 | .321 | .457 | .778 |
| Luke Keaschall | 3.8 | .795 | .207 | .018 | .070 | .299 | .441 | .315 | .381 | .446 | .827 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections