10.1% edge · Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs win
41.3%
Milwaukee Brewers win
58.7%
Fair line (home)
-142
Proj. total
8.42
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago Cubs (mean 3.90)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.52)
Totals
O/U line
7
Proj. total
8.42
Over
53.1%
Under
35.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 41.3% | +213 | +142 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 58.7% | -237 | -142 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.8 | .579 | .166 | .037 | .151 | .368 | 1.454 | .215 | .289 | .375 | .664 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.7 | .640 | .157 | .012 | .123 | .597 | .897 | .233 | .342 | .370 | .712 |
| Michael Busch | 4.6 | .510 | .149 | .025 | .149 | .606 | 1.355 | .214 | .331 | .381 | .712 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.5 | .541 | .143 | .017 | .147 | .555 | 1.377 | .220 | .323 | .380 | .703 |
| Ian Happ | 4.3 | .470 | .144 | .013 | .124 | .626 | 1.372 | .204 | .328 | .352 | .679 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.3 | .778 | .166 | .012 | .054 | .370 | .502 | .266 | .344 | .359 | .703 |
| Carson Kelly | 4.2 | .578 | .116 | .007 | .094 | .450 | .993 | .218 | .314 | .332 | .646 |
| Matt Shaw | 4.0 | .527 | .138 | .017 | .099 | .421 | .978 | .219 | .310 | .351 | .661 |
| Dansby Swanson | 3.9 | .487 | .113 | .015 | .093 | .414 | 1.183 | .204 | .294 | .326 | .619 |
Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 4.6 | .757 | .169 | .013 | .158 | .528 | 1.012 | .270 | .358 | .434 | .792 |
| Jackson Chourio | 4.5 | .747 | .224 | .018 | .190 | .307 | .839 | .282 | .334 | .480 | .814 |
| Brice Turang | 4.4 | .742 | .175 | .022 | .119 | .493 | .840 | .272 | .358 | .421 | .779 |
| William Contreras | 4.3 | .728 | .189 | .005 | .148 | .494 | .662 | .283 | .369 | .453 | .822 |
| Jake Bauers | 4.2 | .529 | .160 | .006 | .190 | .529 | 1.057 | .243 | .345 | .448 | .793 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 4.1 | .641 | .186 | .015 | .143 | .309 | .696 | .263 | .326 | .435 | .761 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 4.0 | .545 | .155 | .029 | .114 | .453 | 1.197 | .241 | .335 | .400 | .735 |
| Cooper Pratt | 3.9 | .578 | .117 | .026 | .063 | .368 | .706 | .226 | .308 | .330 | .638 |
| David Hamilton | 3.8 | .542 | .114 | .025 | .096 | .346 | .814 | .229 | .306 | .362 | .668 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections