Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers

Aaron Nola vs Shane Drohan · 2026-06-13 · 80°F · Final 9–8

6.0% edge · Milwaukee Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies win

47.5%

Milwaukee Brewers win

52.5%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

9.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.57)Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.58)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.14

Over

41.9%

Under

47.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	47.5%	-119	+111
Milwaukee Brewers	52.5%	+102	-111

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.449	.125	.010	.318	.778	1.435	.226	.359	.501	.859
Trea Turner	4.7	.821	.189	.027	.132	.333	.949	.269	.327	.416	.743
Bryce Harper	4.6	.605	.205	.007	.220	.657	.994	.264	.373	.488	.862
Alec Bohm	4.5	.792	.192	.018	.118	.345	.709	.271	.333	.412	.745
Brandon Marsh	4.4	.676	.187	.022	.122	.441	1.223	.255	.333	.407	.740
Edmundo Sosa	4.3	.672	.169	.017	.122	.211	1.035	.243	.291	.383	.674
Bryson Stott	4.2	.675	.150	.026	.090	.393	.720	.250	.325	.375	.700
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.606	.158	.012	.115	.294	.972	.239	.305	.380	.686
Derek Hill	4.0	.581	.124	.010	.099	.267	1.183	.223	.285	.344	.629

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Christian Yelich	4.7	.787	.176	.013	.159	.460	1.198	.272	.348	.434	.782
Jackson Chourio	4.5	.761	.220	.019	.207	.275	1.008	.283	.330	.490	.819
Brice Turang	4.4	.746	.163	.025	.133	.428	.995	.267	.340	.420	.760
William Contreras	4.3	.789	.193	.007	.161	.438	.775	.297	.372	.475	.847
Jake Bauers	4.2	.569	.154	.006	.206	.463	1.203	.251	.339	.461	.800
Garrett Mitchell	4.1	.592	.169	.028	.107	.410	1.377	.244	.325	.392	.717
Sal Frelick	4.0	.800	.169	.013	.086	.317	.564	.290	.351	.413	.764
David Hamilton	3.9	.567	.134	.022	.112	.312	.961	.234	.298	.378	.676
Joey Ortiz	3.8	.623	.168	.017	.088	.300	.671	.259	.323	.394	.717

Data notes: home starter Shane Drohan: only 74 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections