5.5% edge · Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers win
50.1%
Miami Marlins win
49.9%
Fair line (home)
+100
Proj. total
8.59
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Texas Rangers (mean 4.43)Miami Marlins (mean 4.16)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.59
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 50.1% | +120 | -100 |
| Miami Marlins | 49.9% | -130 | +100 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.8 | .664 | .145 | .027 | .186 | .649 | .965 | .248 | .362 | .432 | .793 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.8 | .687 | .185 | .031 | .152 | .617 | .968 | .258 | .360 | .430 | .790 |
| Josh Jung | 4.6 | .797 | .214 | .011 | .136 | .304 | .928 | .270 | .324 | .420 | .744 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.5 | .729 | .169 | .019 | .138 | .489 | .897 | .266 | .356 | .423 | .779 |
| Jake Burger | 4.4 | .654 | .178 | .007 | .179 | .291 | 1.017 | .250 | .308 | .428 | .737 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.3 | .711 | .212 | .022 | .088 | .273 | .939 | .259 | .314 | .389 | .702 |
| Alejandro Osuna | 4.2 | .702 | .168 | .012 | .076 | .435 | .740 | .259 | .347 | .373 | .720 |
| Elias Díaz | 4.1 | .599 | .150 | .006 | .099 | .292 | .948 | .227 | .288 | .349 | .637 |
| Nicky Lopez | 4.0 | .715 | .130 | .022 | .019 | .355 | .601 | .248 | .324 | .313 | .636 |
Miami Marlins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heriberto Hernández | 4.6 | .624 | .157 | .029 | .165 | .466 | 1.185 | .238 | .322 | .411 | .734 |
| Otto Lopez | 4.5 | .892 | .209 | .025 | .090 | .283 | .626 | .291 | .341 | .417 | .758 |
| Kyle Stowers | 4.4 | .581 | .177 | .024 | .182 | .406 | 1.178 | .246 | .324 | .442 | .766 |
| Xavier Edwards | 4.3 | .918 | .137 | .040 | .044 | .381 | .529 | .294 | .361 | .384 | .746 |
| Jakob Marsee | 4.2 | .589 | .147 | .038 | .084 | .503 | .866 | .237 | .339 | .369 | .708 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 4.1 | .612 | .160 | .033 | .095 | .350 | .939 | .246 | .323 | .385 | .709 |
| Griffin Conine | 4.0 | .539 | .149 | .012 | .158 | .359 | 1.174 | .240 | .315 | .421 | .736 |
| Javier Sanoja | 3.8 | .670 | .197 | .025 | .066 | .251 | .387 | .268 | .320 | .393 | .713 |
| Joe Mack | 3.7 | .537 | .139 | .008 | .104 | .288 | .960 | .231 | .297 | .368 | .665 |
Data notes: away starter Tyler Alexander: only 59 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections