0.8% edge · San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants win
49.2%
Miami Marlins win
50.8%
Fair line (home)
-103
Proj. total
8.61
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
San Francisco Giants (mean 4.37)Miami Marlins (mean 4.24)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.61
Over
46.8%
Under
45.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 49.2% | +103 | +103 |
| Miami Marlins | 50.8% | -111 | -103 |
San Francisco Giants — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 4.8 | 1.111 | .201 | .042 | .044 | .291 | .221 | .309 | .356 | .402 | .758 |
| Bryce Eldridge | 4.7 | .646 | .203 | .006 | .153 | .492 | 1.379 | .240 | .325 | .400 | .726 |
| Matt Chapman | 4.6 | .616 | .196 | .018 | .141 | .570 | 1.051 | .243 | .345 | .407 | .752 |
| Rafael Devers | 4.5 | .562 | .182 | .011 | .167 | .571 | 1.166 | .237 | .340 | .418 | .757 |
| Jung Hoo Lee | 4.4 | .831 | .194 | .047 | .063 | .337 | .472 | .282 | .343 | .401 | .744 |
| Willy Adames | 4.3 | .554 | .167 | .015 | .142 | .474 | 1.088 | .231 | .322 | .396 | .717 |
| Casey Schmitt | 4.2 | .646 | .165 | .011 | .137 | .275 | .908 | .248 | .306 | .403 | .709 |
| Drew Gilbert | 4.1 | .574 | .152 | .027 | .090 | .361 | .804 | .230 | .308 | .359 | .667 |
| Daniel Susac | 4.0 | .632 | .163 | .023 | .075 | .251 | .996 | .243 | .300 | .361 | .661 |
Miami Marlins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks | 4.7 | .814 | .171 | .022 | .091 | .592 | .611 | .273 | .376 | .394 | .770 |
| Owen Caissie | 4.6 | .647 | .202 | .013 | .119 | .478 | 1.502 | .242 | .327 | .386 | .712 |
| Heriberto Hernández | 4.5 | .632 | .164 | .026 | .122 | .509 | 1.190 | .241 | .335 | .390 | .725 |
| Kyle Stowers | 4.3 | .604 | .196 | .022 | .126 | .465 | 1.203 | .247 | .336 | .409 | .745 |
| Otto Lopez | 4.3 | .857 | .206 | .024 | .068 | .320 | .627 | .296 | .354 | .413 | .767 |
| Jakob Marsee | 4.2 | .603 | .147 | .038 | .066 | .568 | .913 | .242 | .356 | .362 | .718 |
| Connor Norby | 4.0 | .618 | .189 | .008 | .087 | .376 | 1.077 | .248 | .326 | .377 | .703 |
| Joe Mack | 3.9 | .573 | .152 | .009 | .086 | .359 | 1.054 | .231 | .307 | .352 | .659 |
| Javier Sanoja | 3.8 | .704 | .208 | .025 | .047 | .288 | .411 | .281 | .339 | .396 | .735 |
Data notes: home starter Lake Bachar: only 72 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections