2.6% edge · San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants win
45.4%
Miami Marlins win
54.6%
Fair line (home)
-120
Proj. total
8.81
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
San Francisco Giants (mean 4.27)Miami Marlins (mean 4.55)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.81
Over
48.7%
Under
43.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 45.4% | +129 | +120 |
| Miami Marlins | 54.6% | -140 | -120 |
San Francisco Giants — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 4.8 | 1.118 | .200 | .044 | .045 | .263 | .225 | .313 | .356 | .406 | .762 |
| Bryce Eldridge | 4.7 | .672 | .204 | .006 | .148 | .451 | 1.395 | .245 | .324 | .403 | .727 |
| Matt Chapman | 4.6 | .613 | .194 | .019 | .137 | .518 | 1.090 | .240 | .335 | .401 | .735 |
| Rafael Devers | 4.5 | .580 | .191 | .010 | .168 | .520 | 1.185 | .242 | .336 | .425 | .761 |
| Jung Hoo Lee | 4.4 | .811 | .209 | .049 | .062 | .312 | .510 | .282 | .340 | .404 | .744 |
| Willy Adames | 4.3 | .543 | .176 | .013 | .155 | .441 | 1.075 | .233 | .317 | .409 | .726 |
| Casey Schmitt | 4.2 | .632 | .170 | .015 | .144 | .250 | .921 | .250 | .304 | .414 | .717 |
| Drew Gilbert | 4.0 | .566 | .154 | .030 | .094 | .322 | .835 | .231 | .302 | .366 | .668 |
| Eric Haase | 3.9 | .537 | .122 | .008 | .113 | .261 | 1.219 | .215 | .272 | .345 | .618 |
Miami Marlins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks | 4.8 | .850 | .177 | .021 | .090 | .559 | .518 | .279 | .379 | .398 | .778 |
| Otto Lopez | 4.6 | .994 | .231 | .030 | .067 | .314 | .591 | .309 | .363 | .424 | .787 |
| Kyle Stowers | 4.5 | .676 | .210 | .026 | .126 | .457 | 1.116 | .261 | .348 | .421 | .770 |
| Xavier Edwards | 4.4 | .993 | .158 | .052 | .036 | .438 | .485 | .315 | .387 | .409 | .796 |
| Heriberto Hernández | 4.3 | .660 | .161 | .029 | .109 | .460 | 1.025 | .254 | .343 | .398 | .742 |
| Owen Caissie | 4.2 | .631 | .197 | .011 | .112 | .422 | 1.237 | .255 | .338 | .404 | .742 |
| Jakob Marsee | 4.1 | .635 | .151 | .045 | .059 | .512 | .783 | .254 | .361 | .374 | .735 |
| Joe Mack | 4.0 | .620 | .157 | .012 | .086 | .348 | .948 | .243 | .317 | .365 | .683 |
| Leo Jiménez | 3.9 | .651 | .183 | .011 | .048 | .331 | .670 | .262 | .350 | .365 | .714 |
Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections