59.5% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers
Baltimore Orioles win
34.9%
Los Angeles Dodgers win
65.1%
Fair line (home)
-186
Proj. total
9.43
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.14)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.28)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.43
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 34.9% | -3574 | +186 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.1% | +1625 | -186 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.7 | .559 | .154 | .008 | .181 | .600 | 1.263 | .223 | .330 | .400 | .730 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.6 | .564 | .164 | .025 | .209 | .470 | 1.174 | .237 | .323 | .444 | .767 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.5 | .497 | .146 | .005 | .258 | .447 | 1.212 | .230 | .320 | .465 | .786 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.4 | .509 | .144 | .011 | .227 | .383 | 1.255 | .225 | .299 | .439 | .739 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.3 | .445 | .142 | .010 | .202 | .399 | 1.387 | .209 | .291 | .409 | .700 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.2 | .460 | .129 | .006 | .175 | .433 | 1.407 | .209 | .301 | .390 | .691 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.0 | .561 | .119 | .023 | .100 | .330 | 1.025 | .217 | .284 | .343 | .627 |
| Blaze Alexander | 3.9 | .508 | .121 | .015 | .096 | .341 | 1.278 | .211 | .294 | .335 | .629 |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 3.8 | .525 | .147 | .009 | .132 | .177 | 1.003 | .225 | .266 | .380 | .646 |
Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 4.7 | .638 | .179 | .046 | .332 | .634 | 1.006 | .299 | .399 | .616 | 1.015 |
| Andy Pages | 4.5 | .736 | .216 | .014 | .249 | .254 | .833 | .286 | .332 | .519 | .852 |
| Freddie Freeman | 4.4 | .759 | .219 | .014 | .184 | .455 | .720 | .300 | .378 | .503 | .882 |
| Mookie Betts | 4.3 | .699 | .198 | .018 | .185 | .431 | .468 | .285 | .360 | .489 | .848 |
| Max Muncy | 4.2 | .510 | .141 | .010 | .248 | .583 | .955 | .253 | .363 | .505 | .868 |
| Kyle Tucker | 4.1 | .612 | .165 | .023 | .206 | .512 | .621 | .281 | .373 | .513 | .886 |
| Ryan Ward | 4.0 | .544 | .142 | .019 | .179 | .298 | .978 | .239 | .299 | .433 | .732 |
| Alex Freeland | 3.9 | .560 | .137 | .015 | .120 | .384 | .959 | .239 | .321 | .391 | .712 |
| Chuckie Robinson | 3.8 | .602 | .118 | .020 | .087 | .197 | .905 | .233 | .279 | .351 | .630 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections