7.2% edge · Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles win
40.8%
Los Angeles Dodgers win
59.2%
Fair line (home)
-145
Proj. total
9.44
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.43)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.00)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.44
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 40.8% | +191 | +145 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.2% | -210 | -145 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.8 | .620 | .173 | .009 | .165 | .623 | 1.193 | .235 | .343 | .403 | .746 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.7 | .620 | .186 | .027 | .198 | .504 | 1.096 | .250 | .339 | .452 | .792 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.6 | .551 | .161 | .004 | .250 | .496 | 1.118 | .243 | .340 | .474 | .815 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.5 | .574 | .154 | .012 | .211 | .400 | 1.189 | .236 | .311 | .438 | .749 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.3 | .638 | .135 | .028 | .101 | .368 | 1.026 | .228 | .297 | .352 | .649 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.2 | .494 | .141 | .005 | .166 | .460 | 1.355 | .217 | .312 | .392 | .704 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.1 | .477 | .157 | .011 | .180 | .386 | 1.237 | .223 | .304 | .417 | .722 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.0 | .536 | .125 | .024 | .106 | .475 | .994 | .226 | .326 | .367 | .692 |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 3.9 | .574 | .158 | .010 | .130 | .193 | .953 | .236 | .280 | .390 | .669 |
Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | 4.7 | .708 | .197 | .025 | .193 | .650 | .692 | .280 | .384 | .486 | .870 |
| Andy Pages | 4.6 | .758 | .220 | .013 | .200 | .291 | .847 | .281 | .335 | .481 | .816 |
| Freddie Freeman | 4.5 | .754 | .229 | .016 | .163 | .504 | .727 | .297 | .385 | .489 | .873 |
| Mookie Betts | 4.4 | .714 | .193 | .022 | .159 | .486 | .467 | .283 | .367 | .468 | .835 |
| Max Muncy | 4.3 | .521 | .136 | .011 | .209 | .643 | .971 | .247 | .369 | .467 | .836 |
| Tommy Edman | 4.1 | .695 | .168 | .021 | .106 | .288 | .702 | .260 | .320 | .399 | .719 |
| Ryan Ward | 4.0 | .540 | .142 | .019 | .159 | .344 | .994 | .235 | .304 | .414 | .718 |
| Dalton Rushing | 3.9 | .539 | .137 | .008 | .155 | .393 | .988 | .241 | .328 | .418 | .746 |
| Alex Freeland | 3.8 | .556 | .140 | .016 | .097 | .408 | .933 | .241 | .331 | .379 | .710 |
Data notes: away starter Trey Gibson: only 49 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Trey Gibson: only 47 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections