0.5% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers
Tampa Bay Rays win
40.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers win
59.5%
Fair line (home)
-147
Proj. total
7.89
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.67)Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.22)
Totals
O/U line
7
Proj. total
7.89
Over
47.6%
Under
40.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 40.5% | +139 | +147 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.5% | -151 | -147 |
Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 4.7 | .763 | .172 | .012 | .175 | .478 | .893 | .269 | .352 | .442 | .794 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 4.6 | .606 | .159 | .004 | .155 | .539 | 1.433 | .231 | .331 | .389 | .720 |
| Cedric Mullins | 4.5 | .527 | .145 | .021 | .125 | .419 | 1.240 | .203 | .285 | .342 | .627 |
| Junior Caminero | 4.4 | .573 | .153 | .006 | .276 | .409 | .994 | .255 | .328 | .506 | .834 |
| Richie Palacios | 4.3 | .553 | .132 | .029 | .068 | .493 | 1.088 | .209 | .310 | .314 | .624 |
| Chandler Simpson | 4.2 | .849 | .102 | .045 | .019 | .260 | .632 | .260 | .308 | .323 | .631 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 4.1 | .515 | .135 | .013 | .106 | .325 | 1.142 | .206 | .275 | .335 | .610 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 4.0 | .451 | .119 | .013 | .067 | .467 | 1.329 | .188 | .289 | .287 | .577 |
| Taylor Walls | 3.8 | .433 | .101 | .026 | .049 | .416 | 1.151 | .179 | .274 | .267 | .541 |
Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Edman | 4.6 | .708 | .163 | .016 | .124 | .279 | .953 | .239 | .294 | .373 | .666 |
| Andy Pages | 4.4 | .658 | .190 | .012 | .211 | .281 | 1.005 | .260 | .314 | .465 | .779 |
| Freddie Freeman | 4.3 | .661 | .199 | .013 | .169 | .483 | .882 | .274 | .362 | .466 | .828 |
| Mookie Betts | 4.2 | .645 | .170 | .018 | .168 | .463 | .594 | .267 | .351 | .456 | .807 |
| Miguel Rojas | 4.1 | .724 | .180 | .006 | .082 | .280 | .638 | .259 | .316 | .374 | .690 |
| Kyle Tucker | 4.0 | .543 | .152 | .021 | .171 | .539 | .752 | .256 | .359 | .459 | .818 |
| Alex Call | 3.9 | .540 | .139 | .011 | .085 | .478 | .824 | .228 | .331 | .350 | .681 |
| Dalton Rushing | 3.8 | .473 | .124 | .007 | .159 | .360 | 1.126 | .225 | .308 | .406 | .714 |
| Alex Freeland | 3.7 | .471 | .116 | .010 | .089 | .371 | 1.060 | .210 | .297 | .333 | .630 |
Data notes: away starter Shane McClanahan: only 45 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections