3.1% edge · Los Angeles Angels
Baltimore Orioles win
56.4%
Los Angeles Angels win
43.6%
Fair line (home)
+129
Proj. total
8.94
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.91)Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.03)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.94
Over
40.0%
Under
50.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 56.4% | -154 | -129 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 43.6% | +142 | +129 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.9 | .675 | .183 | .012 | .174 | .710 | .981 | .253 | .369 | .430 | .799 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.8 | .698 | .205 | .029 | .201 | .552 | .904 | .271 | .362 | .478 | .840 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.7 | .621 | .176 | .005 | .262 | .527 | .944 | .263 | .360 | .502 | .863 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.6 | .578 | .173 | .014 | .209 | .468 | 1.159 | .241 | .327 | .447 | .774 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.5 | .576 | .141 | .010 | .188 | .553 | 1.119 | .238 | .341 | .426 | .767 |
| Blaze Alexander | 4.3 | .661 | .165 | .018 | .107 | .403 | 1.123 | .247 | .331 | .382 | .713 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.2 | .552 | .147 | .008 | .166 | .502 | 1.164 | .237 | .337 | .417 | .753 |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 4.1 | .648 | .179 | .010 | .137 | .218 | .830 | .251 | .297 | .409 | .705 |
| Sam Huff | 4.0 | .500 | .135 | .010 | .123 | .318 | 1.301 | .210 | .280 | .354 | .634 |
Los Angeles Angels — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto | 4.6 | .631 | .199 | .013 | .174 | .397 | 1.231 | .248 | .330 | .431 | .760 |
| Nolan Schanuel | 4.5 | .788 | .189 | .006 | .108 | .495 | .691 | .278 | .367 | .412 | .778 |
| Jo Adell | 4.4 | .610 | .165 | .011 | .215 | .267 | 1.172 | .247 | .304 | .452 | .757 |
| Jorge Soler | 4.3 | .533 | .153 | .013 | .170 | .438 | 1.251 | .230 | .317 | .412 | .728 |
| Wade Meckler | 4.2 | .729 | .168 | .016 | .061 | .453 | .954 | .264 | .347 | .368 | .715 |
| Denzer Guzman | 4.1 | .622 | .164 | .015 | .094 | .301 | 1.119 | .240 | .301 | .367 | .668 |
| Donovan Walton | 4.0 | .646 | .147 | .013 | .070 | .354 | .737 | .246 | .321 | .353 | .675 |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 3.8 | .562 | .115 | .009 | .141 | .289 | 1.056 | .235 | .299 | .393 | .692 |
| Jose Siri | 3.7 | .477 | .123 | .024 | .131 | .245 | 1.288 | .220 | .278 | .384 | .662 |
Data notes: home starter Sam Aldegheri: only 28 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Sam Aldegheri: only 63 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections