4.4% edge · Los Angeles Angels
Baltimore Orioles win
51.3%
Los Angeles Angels win
48.7%
Fair line (home)
+105
Proj. total
9.23
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.80)Los Angeles Angels (mean 4.44)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.23
Over
42.4%
Under
47.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 51.3% | -132 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 48.7% | +121 | +105 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.8 | .661 | .190 | .012 | .170 | .645 | 1.073 | .248 | .355 | .422 | .778 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.7 | .683 | .196 | .028 | .198 | .510 | .980 | .264 | .350 | .467 | .817 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.6 | .615 | .176 | .006 | .255 | .478 | 1.019 | .258 | .347 | .492 | .839 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.5 | .622 | .174 | .011 | .199 | .415 | 1.077 | .247 | .322 | .442 | .764 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.4 | .564 | .169 | .013 | .192 | .416 | 1.197 | .238 | .317 | .433 | .750 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.3 | .677 | .147 | .031 | .096 | .358 | .891 | .243 | .309 | .369 | .678 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.2 | .554 | .152 | .007 | .165 | .445 | 1.210 | .238 | .327 | .417 | .745 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.1 | .529 | .121 | .010 | .158 | .473 | 1.105 | .230 | .326 | .402 | .728 |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 4.0 | .625 | .177 | .009 | .133 | .187 | .854 | .251 | .291 | .410 | .700 |
Los Angeles Angels — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto | 4.6 | .636 | .202 | .011 | .192 | .394 | 1.187 | .253 | .334 | .448 | .782 |
| Vaughn Grissom | 4.5 | .799 | .212 | .008 | .111 | .370 | .762 | .278 | .346 | .416 | .761 |
| Nolan Schanuel | 4.4 | .760 | .180 | .007 | .125 | .481 | .638 | .280 | .369 | .428 | .797 |
| Jorge Soler | 4.3 | .539 | .154 | .012 | .189 | .457 | 1.183 | .236 | .326 | .434 | .759 |
| Jo Adell | 4.2 | .579 | .151 | .009 | .239 | .261 | 1.055 | .254 | .312 | .485 | .797 |
| Oswald Peraza | 4.1 | .631 | .131 | .023 | .130 | .287 | .993 | .245 | .309 | .398 | .707 |
| Christian Moore | 4.0 | .572 | .144 | .035 | .104 | .437 | 1.152 | .244 | .333 | .394 | .727 |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 3.9 | .572 | .113 | .009 | .163 | .303 | .999 | .244 | .310 | .420 | .730 |
| Jose Siri | 3.7 | .482 | .130 | .022 | .152 | .255 | 1.235 | .228 | .288 | .411 | .698 |
Data notes: home starter Ryan Johnson: only 40 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Ryan Johnson: only 32 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections