St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals

Michael McGreevy vs Seth Lugo · 2026-06-19 · 86°F

0.8% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

53.4%

Kansas City Royals win

46.6%

Fair line (home)

+115

Proj. total

9.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.06)Kansas City Royals (mean 4.47)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.53

Over

45.2%

Under

44.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	53.4%	-116	-115
Kansas City Royals	46.6%	+107	+115

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	5.0	.877	.209	.011	.146	.488	.759	.284	.366	.437	.803
Iván Herrera	4.8	.865	.206	.014	.148	.531	.804	.294	.387	.456	.843
Alec Burleson	4.7	.899	.212	.010	.181	.358	.625	.300	.358	.479	.837
Jordan Walker	4.6	.777	.212	.012	.182	.354	1.079	.280	.341	.466	.807
Lars Nootbaar	4.5	.702	.185	.013	.142	.581	.816	.268	.366	.431	.798
Masyn Winn	4.4	.784	.200	.022	.093	.327	.734	.273	.335	.403	.738
Jimmy Crooks	4.3	.685	.162	.012	.110	.342	1.131	.248	.315	.380	.695
Blaze Jordan	4.2	.745	.207	.013	.112	.229	.517	.275	.321	.421	.742
Nathan Church	4.1	.772	.163	.015	.085	.240	.602	.274	.324	.393	.716

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.747	.233	.023	.137	.391	.998	.268	.332	.430	.762
Lane Thomas	4.5	.768	.232	.018	.123	.380	.895	.277	.345	.432	.777
Jac Caglianone	4.4	.810	.216	.021	.175	.303	.870	.299	.353	.490	.843
Salvador Perez	4.3	.772	.193	.005	.168	.182	.681	.278	.319	.451	.771
Michael Massey	4.2	.799	.234	.012	.116	.168	.577	.288	.321	.439	.760
Nick Loftin	4.1	.725	.192	.033	.075	.370	.490	.277	.350	.407	.757
John Rave	4.0	.665	.170	.029	.090	.332	.837	.261	.327	.398	.724
Isaac Collins	3.9	.658	.188	.025	.066	.407	.741	.272	.357	.399	.756
Tyler Tolbert	3.8	.687	.176	.017	.039	.212	.798	.260	.311	.353	.664

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections