1.0% edge · Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers win
51.5%
Houston Astros win
48.5%
Fair line (home)
+106
Proj. total
9.62
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Detroit Tigers (mean 5.01)Houston Astros (mean 4.61)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9.62
Over
56.3%
Under
35.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 51.5% | -106 | -106 |
| Houston Astros | 48.5% | -102 | +106 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.9 | .773 | .221 | .039 | .129 | .671 | .645 | .278 | .383 | .442 | .825 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.8 | .698 | .207 | .013 | .216 | .367 | 1.073 | .261 | .327 | .463 | .791 |
| Riley Greene | 4.7 | .694 | .209 | .012 | .229 | .504 | 1.218 | .277 | .361 | .500 | .862 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.6 | .516 | .178 | .007 | .214 | .568 | 1.209 | .233 | .338 | .444 | .782 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 4.5 | .603 | .147 | .047 | .254 | .350 | 1.116 | .260 | .328 | .508 | .836 |
| Colt Keith | 4.3 | .713 | .179 | .032 | .132 | .420 | .831 | .271 | .347 | .435 | .782 |
| Matt Vierling | 4.2 | .648 | .168 | .020 | .114 | .395 | .889 | .250 | .326 | .394 | .720 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 4.1 | .605 | .151 | .033 | .107 | .342 | .931 | .240 | .312 | .384 | .696 |
| Jake Rogers | 4.0 | .468 | .128 | .028 | .142 | .375 | 1.158 | .213 | .294 | .382 | .676 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.6 | .834 | .217 | .013 | .152 | .252 | .783 | .282 | .331 | .444 | .775 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.5 | .725 | .219 | .009 | .278 | .558 | .756 | .316 | .409 | .590 | .999 |
| Christian Walker | 4.4 | .583 | .169 | .011 | .225 | .342 | 1.075 | .246 | .313 | .462 | .775 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.3 | .594 | .169 | .007 | .207 | .447 | .717 | .259 | .349 | .473 | .821 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.2 | .702 | .177 | .009 | .157 | .324 | .741 | .272 | .333 | .445 | .777 |
| Cam Smith | 4.1 | .614 | .163 | .023 | .120 | .333 | 1.069 | .248 | .317 | .401 | .719 |
| Joey Loperfido | 4.0 | .622 | .165 | .016 | .097 | .256 | 1.134 | .244 | .301 | .376 | .678 |
| Jake Meyers | 3.9 | .656 | .159 | .014 | .089 | .280 | .805 | .258 | .319 | .386 | .706 |
| Christian Vázquez | 3.7 | .591 | .137 | .005 | .091 | .229 | .728 | .236 | .287 | .356 | .643 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections