6.4% edge · Houston Astros
Cleveland Guardians win
40.1%
Houston Astros win
59.9%
Fair line (home)
-149
Proj. total
8.85
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.08)Houston Astros (mean 4.76)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.85
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 40.1% | +111 | +149 |
| Houston Astros | 59.9% | -120 | -149 |
Cleveland Guardians — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Bazzana | 4.8 | .615 | .194 | .025 | .104 | .633 | 1.251 | .227 | .337 | .362 | .699 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 4.7 | .540 | .168 | .016 | .208 | .573 | 1.266 | .229 | .333 | .432 | .765 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 4.6 | .699 | .186 | .021 | .096 | .441 | .814 | .247 | .335 | .375 | .709 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 4.5 | .491 | .153 | .006 | .173 | .623 | 1.284 | .217 | .336 | .398 | .734 |
| Daniel Schneemann | 4.4 | .544 | .163 | .009 | .100 | .501 | 1.249 | .213 | .308 | .338 | .646 |
| Gabriel Arias | 4.3 | .577 | .169 | .017 | .131 | .326 | 1.369 | .230 | .297 | .382 | .679 |
| Kahlil Watson | 4.2 | .484 | .127 | .015 | .140 | .422 | 1.386 | .208 | .296 | .364 | .660 |
| Patrick Bailey | 4.0 | .547 | .122 | .018 | .085 | .361 | 1.138 | .212 | .289 | .325 | .614 |
| Steven Kwan | 3.9 | .693 | .147 | .009 | .064 | .477 | .424 | .267 | .362 | .372 | .733 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.6 | .805 | .207 | .015 | .152 | .267 | .820 | .277 | .331 | .439 | .770 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.5 | .695 | .193 | .009 | .304 | .589 | .773 | .314 | .414 | .607 | 1.021 |
| Christian Walker | 4.4 | .564 | .161 | .008 | .253 | .370 | 1.089 | .249 | .322 | .486 | .808 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.3 | .573 | .154 | .008 | .199 | .482 | .752 | .252 | .352 | .458 | .811 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.2 | .691 | .160 | .005 | .155 | .363 | .778 | .267 | .338 | .436 | .774 |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.1 | .720 | .178 | .011 | .160 | .172 | .701 | .276 | .311 | .451 | .763 |
| Cam Smith | 4.0 | .575 | .147 | .022 | .127 | .342 | 1.077 | .244 | .319 | .404 | .723 |
| Joey Loperfido | 3.8 | .554 | .159 | .013 | .101 | .267 | 1.139 | .235 | .298 | .373 | .671 |
| Jake Meyers | 3.7 | .593 | .143 | .015 | .090 | .287 | .800 | .248 | .316 | .379 | .695 |
Data notes: home starter Tatsuya Imai: only 67 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections