0.8% edge · Houston Astros
Detroit Tigers win
46.8%
Houston Astros win
53.2%
Fair line (home)
-114
Proj. total
9.54
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Detroit Tigers (mean 4.78)Houston Astros (mean 4.77)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.54
Over
45.7%
Under
44.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 46.8% | +106 | +114 |
| Houston Astros | 53.2% | -115 | -114 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.9 | .735 | .201 | .038 | .126 | .689 | .737 | .265 | .375 | .423 | .797 |
| Gleyber Torres | 4.8 | .727 | .169 | .004 | .127 | .652 | .892 | .251 | .360 | .388 | .747 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 4.7 | .594 | .137 | .047 | .244 | .377 | 1.290 | .242 | .314 | .470 | .784 |
| Riley Greene | 4.5 | .625 | .190 | .012 | .198 | .523 | 1.303 | .257 | .349 | .460 | .809 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.5 | .607 | .183 | .010 | .183 | .375 | 1.065 | .246 | .322 | .433 | .756 |
| Colt Keith | 4.3 | .673 | .158 | .029 | .123 | .456 | .921 | .255 | .339 | .408 | .747 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.2 | .455 | .158 | .004 | .185 | .532 | 1.220 | .220 | .328 | .418 | .746 |
| Zach McKinstry | 4.1 | .553 | .132 | .053 | .085 | .448 | .925 | .227 | .320 | .363 | .682 |
| James Outman | 4.0 | .423 | .122 | .019 | .128 | .463 | 1.435 | .199 | .303 | .355 | .658 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.6 | .849 | .206 | .013 | .148 | .259 | .709 | .282 | .333 | .439 | .772 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.5 | .728 | .219 | .009 | .301 | .570 | .683 | .323 | .417 | .616 | 1.033 |
| Christian Walker | 4.4 | .601 | .164 | .012 | .234 | .366 | .976 | .253 | .324 | .475 | .799 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.3 | .601 | .167 | .006 | .199 | .461 | .657 | .258 | .352 | .464 | .816 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.2 | .723 | .183 | .007 | .157 | .343 | .668 | .279 | .343 | .453 | .795 |
| Taylor Trammell | 4.1 | .514 | .158 | .024 | .137 | .421 | 1.194 | .228 | .313 | .396 | .710 |
| Cam Smith | 4.0 | .620 | .160 | .023 | .120 | .337 | .966 | .255 | .326 | .412 | .738 |
| Brice Matthews | 3.9 | .528 | .121 | .030 | .129 | .307 | 1.146 | .228 | .296 | .389 | .684 |
| Christian Vázquez | 3.8 | .610 | .138 | .005 | .094 | .234 | .651 | .242 | .294 | .365 | .660 |
Data notes: away starter Troy Melton: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Troy Melton: only 35 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections