5.6% edge · Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers win
43.6%
Houston Astros win
56.4%
Fair line (home)
-129
Proj. total
8.71
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Detroit Tigers (mean 4.19)Houston Astros (mean 4.52)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.71
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 43.6% | +158 | +129 |
| Houston Astros | 56.4% | -172 | -129 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.8 | .739 | .199 | .037 | .112 | .598 | .800 | .262 | .360 | .409 | .769 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.7 | .633 | .185 | .013 | .180 | .357 | 1.239 | .238 | .306 | .415 | .721 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 4.5 | .592 | .137 | .048 | .214 | .334 | 1.332 | .239 | .305 | .450 | .754 |
| Riley Greene | 4.4 | .633 | .183 | .013 | .184 | .453 | 1.355 | .256 | .337 | .448 | .785 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.3 | .462 | .162 | .004 | .168 | .502 | 1.366 | .210 | .311 | .388 | .699 |
| Colt Keith | 4.2 | .652 | .158 | .028 | .115 | .390 | .996 | .250 | .324 | .397 | .721 |
| Zach McKinstry | 4.1 | .551 | .127 | .051 | .074 | .403 | .995 | .218 | .303 | .341 | .644 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 4.0 | .550 | .133 | .032 | .088 | .315 | 1.058 | .220 | .290 | .347 | .637 |
| James Outman | 3.9 | .406 | .120 | .019 | .121 | .404 | 1.485 | .194 | .289 | .346 | .635 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.6 | .875 | .222 | .014 | .119 | .284 | .760 | .288 | .344 | .429 | .773 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.5 | .746 | .223 | .009 | .213 | .620 | .737 | .310 | .415 | .540 | .955 |
| Christian Walker | 4.4 | .617 | .176 | .010 | .176 | .393 | 1.053 | .247 | .326 | .430 | .756 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.3 | .620 | .172 | .007 | .152 | .492 | .714 | .255 | .358 | .428 | .786 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.2 | .736 | .182 | .006 | .124 | .365 | .736 | .275 | .344 | .423 | .767 |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.1 | .771 | .192 | .012 | .127 | .174 | .666 | .282 | .317 | .434 | .752 |
| Cam Smith | 4.0 | .622 | .167 | .026 | .088 | .361 | 1.015 | .252 | .329 | .387 | .716 |
| Brice Matthews | 3.9 | .539 | .121 | .028 | .098 | .327 | 1.192 | .224 | .297 | .357 | .655 |
| Raynel Delgado | 3.8 | .628 | .146 | .018 | .035 | .272 | .892 | .239 | .302 | .322 | .624 |
Data notes: home starter Hunter Brown: only 17 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hunter Brown: only 26 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections