33.7% edge · Houston Astros
Houston Astros win
47.8%
Detroit Tigers win
52.2%
Fair line (home)
-109
Proj. total
8.82
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Houston Astros (mean 4.37)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.45)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.82
Over
48.9%
Under
42.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 47.8% | +583 | +109 |
| Detroit Tigers | 52.2% | -807 | -109 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.8 | .844 | .206 | .014 | .126 | .280 | .764 | .268 | .323 | .406 | .729 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.7 | .731 | .211 | .011 | .246 | .597 | .748 | .298 | .397 | .539 | .936 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.6 | .588 | .165 | .007 | .176 | .510 | .735 | .236 | .337 | .414 | .751 |
| Christian Walker | 4.5 | .570 | .162 | .011 | .196 | .367 | 1.039 | .233 | .308 | .425 | .733 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.3 | .706 | .171 | .006 | .122 | .351 | .741 | .254 | .320 | .393 | .713 |
| Joey Loperfido | 4.3 | .616 | .179 | .015 | .090 | .281 | 1.187 | .230 | .290 | .352 | .642 |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.1 | .704 | .169 | .009 | .136 | .167 | .645 | .258 | .293 | .409 | .702 |
| Cam Smith | 4.0 | .594 | .162 | .021 | .094 | .339 | 1.022 | .239 | .311 | .372 | .683 |
| Taylor Trammell | 3.9 | .445 | .140 | .023 | .107 | .394 | 1.188 | .206 | .293 | .352 | .645 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.7 | .708 | .197 | .038 | .104 | .719 | .673 | .268 | .388 | .417 | .805 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.6 | .629 | .190 | .011 | .177 | .411 | 1.093 | .248 | .330 | .431 | .761 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 4.5 | .581 | .135 | .042 | .217 | .397 | 1.185 | .246 | .326 | .465 | .791 |
| Riley Greene | 4.3 | .603 | .178 | .011 | .166 | .552 | 1.220 | .256 | .358 | .443 | .801 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.2 | .446 | .160 | .006 | .165 | .578 | 1.210 | .217 | .335 | .403 | .738 |
| Colt Keith | 4.1 | .644 | .149 | .028 | .103 | .461 | .858 | .254 | .345 | .396 | .741 |
| Zach McKinstry | 4.0 | .541 | .124 | .048 | .070 | .480 | .876 | .224 | .326 | .347 | .673 |
| Matt Vierling | 3.9 | .573 | .147 | .017 | .081 | .405 | .887 | .236 | .323 | .358 | .681 |
| James Outman | 3.8 | .396 | .123 | .020 | .109 | .461 | 1.336 | .199 | .310 | .349 | .659 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections