Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers

Kai-Wei Teng vs Framber Valdez · 2026-06-27 · 79°F

21.9% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

46.6%

Detroit Tigers win

53.4%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

8.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 3.91)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.11)

O/U line

12.5

Proj. total

8.02

Over

14.1%

Under

85.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	46.6%	+286	+115
Detroit Tigers	53.4%	-373	-115

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.877	.220	.015	.101	.280	.783	.276	.331	.402	.733
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.652	.180	.007	.141	.524	.770	.244	.347	.398	.746
Jose Altuve	4.5	.773	.192	.008	.116	.390	.806	.265	.334	.400	.735
Christian Walker	4.4	.579	.162	.011	.157	.375	1.079	.227	.304	.391	.695
Cam Smith	4.3	.657	.174	.026	.086	.379	1.125	.242	.318	.367	.685
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.761	.186	.010	.112	.177	.693	.266	.302	.401	.703
Jake Meyers	4.1	.682	.157	.020	.067	.319	.834	.248	.316	.355	.671
Brice Matthews	4.0	.538	.123	.029	.084	.326	1.263	.214	.285	.333	.618
Christian Vázquez	3.9	.622	.134	.006	.063	.251	.738	.230	.286	.324	.609

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.6	.699	.192	.037	.105	.662	.686	.265	.377	.414	.791
Colt Keith	4.5	.712	.158	.034	.115	.469	.964	.255	.339	.398	.737
Riley Greene	4.4	.633	.179	.013	.168	.514	1.242	.259	.353	.444	.798
Spencer Torkelson	4.3	.451	.163	.005	.165	.560	1.246	.214	.328	.397	.726
Kerry Carpenter	4.2	.546	.127	.042	.199	.352	1.130	.244	.320	.459	.779
Zach McKinstry	4.1	.555	.126	.050	.067	.458	.907	.224	.321	.343	.664
Hao-Yu Lee	4.0	.554	.131	.033	.081	.351	.970	.224	.304	.348	.652
James Outman	3.9	.411	.120	.022	.109	.445	1.385	.199	.305	.346	.651
Jake Rogers	3.7	.425	.116	.022	.107	.369	1.144	.202	.291	.348	.639

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections