2.2% edge · Houston Astros
Houston Astros win
49.7%
Detroit Tigers win
50.3%
Fair line (home)
-101
Proj. total
8.73
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Houston Astros (mean 4.40)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.33)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.73
Over
37.5%
Under
52.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 49.7% | +106 | +101 |
| Detroit Tigers | 50.3% | -115 | -101 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.8 | .853 | .222 | .014 | .127 | .271 | .751 | .272 | .323 | .413 | .736 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.7 | .720 | .214 | .010 | .254 | .599 | .751 | .297 | .395 | .543 | .938 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.6 | .617 | .162 | .008 | .186 | .508 | .717 | .243 | .341 | .428 | .768 |
| Christian Walker | 4.5 | .602 | .159 | .011 | .198 | .362 | 1.017 | .238 | .309 | .429 | .738 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.4 | .750 | .175 | .007 | .131 | .357 | .724 | .267 | .331 | .412 | .743 |
| Joey Loperfido | 4.3 | .622 | .180 | .018 | .085 | .292 | 1.174 | .230 | .292 | .350 | .642 |
| Cam Smith | 4.2 | .618 | .159 | .024 | .100 | .356 | 1.042 | .240 | .314 | .375 | .689 |
| Taylor Trammell | 4.0 | .465 | .145 | .024 | .111 | .429 | 1.210 | .208 | .299 | .355 | .655 |
| Christian Vázquez | 3.9 | .632 | .133 | .007 | .081 | .238 | .691 | .233 | .285 | .339 | .623 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.7 | .734 | .199 | .038 | .099 | .685 | .671 | .271 | .384 | .416 | .800 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 4.6 | .616 | .137 | .044 | .204 | .400 | 1.208 | .244 | .322 | .449 | .771 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.5 | .635 | .190 | .012 | .161 | .380 | 1.065 | .249 | .325 | .424 | .749 |
| Riley Greene | 4.3 | .634 | .184 | .011 | .160 | .521 | 1.207 | .262 | .357 | .444 | .801 |
| Colt Keith | 4.2 | .684 | .162 | .029 | .100 | .443 | .885 | .260 | .343 | .398 | .741 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.1 | .446 | .166 | .005 | .150 | .558 | 1.171 | .218 | .334 | .396 | .731 |
| Zach McKinstry | 4.0 | .568 | .123 | .051 | .065 | .462 | .877 | .230 | .326 | .350 | .676 |
| James Outman | 3.9 | .433 | .131 | .022 | .108 | .460 | 1.392 | .205 | .310 | .352 | .662 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 3.8 | .555 | .126 | .029 | .075 | .342 | .922 | .231 | .310 | .351 | .661 |
Data notes: home starter Troy Melton: only 41 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Tatsuya Imai: only 73 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections