New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers

Gerrit Cole vs Framber Valdez · 2026-06-22 · 71°F

5.4% edge · Detroit Tigers

New York Yankees win

47.6%

Detroit Tigers win

52.3%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

7.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 3.89)Detroit Tigers (mean 3.96)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

7.86

Over

39.4%

Under

60.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	47.6%	-118	+110
Detroit Tigers	52.3%	+109	-110

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Amed Rosario	4.8	.921	.208	.027	.072	.224	.857	.273	.313	.379	.691
Ben Rice	4.7	.618	.192	.029	.166	.498	.993	.245	.336	.427	.763
Paul Goldschmidt	4.5	.767	.199	.014	.102	.378	.951	.262	.329	.391	.720
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.734	.172	.035	.120	.407	.626	.265	.337	.416	.752
Anthony Volpe	4.3	.593	.189	.023	.087	.356	.996	.226	.295	.352	.647
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.590	.137	.022	.120	.406	1.090	.230	.310	.373	.683
Jasson Domínguez	4.1	.693	.144	.006	.086	.346	.945	.249	.319	.359	.678
José Caballero	4.0	.614	.170	.008	.052	.364	.915	.236	.317	.331	.648
Ali Sánchez	3.9	.598	.133	.007	.062	.282	.967	.223	.284	.315	.599

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.5	.704	.198	.038	.106	.525	.666	.264	.356	.413	.769
Dillon Dingler	4.4	.625	.183	.013	.177	.289	1.049	.246	.305	.428	.733
Kerry Carpenter	4.3	.591	.131	.043	.208	.283	1.132	.245	.305	.457	.762
Riley Greene	4.2	.618	.177	.009	.168	.387	1.175	.257	.331	.441	.772
Spencer Torkelson	4.1	.446	.160	.004	.160	.451	1.172	.213	.308	.393	.701
Colt Keith	4.0	.651	.154	.028	.102	.330	.818	.257	.323	.399	.722
James Outman	3.9	.411	.132	.022	.114	.363	1.374	.196	.284	.345	.629
Hao-Yu Lee	3.8	.536	.129	.029	.084	.260	.893	.225	.288	.352	.640
Zach McKinstry	3.6	.506	.119	.045	.067	.321	.792	.225	.300	.350	.650

Data notes: away starter Gerrit Cole: only 34 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections