1.8% edge · Detroit Tigers
New York Yankees win
49.5%
Detroit Tigers win
50.5%
Fair line (home)
-102
Proj. total
7.94
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
New York Yankees (mean 4.01)Detroit Tigers (mean 3.94)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
7.94
Over
40.6%
Under
51.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 49.5% | -110 | +102 |
| Detroit Tigers | 50.5% | +101 | -102 |
New York Yankees — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | 4.7 | .594 | .189 | .025 | .224 | .463 | 1.019 | .246 | .328 | .463 | .790 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 4.6 | .746 | .166 | .011 | .132 | .377 | 1.072 | .252 | .318 | .391 | .709 |
| Cody Bellinger | 4.5 | .715 | .171 | .033 | .152 | .368 | .662 | .261 | .325 | .430 | .756 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 4.4 | .706 | .186 | .012 | .121 | .335 | .957 | .254 | .316 | .397 | .712 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4.3 | .577 | .134 | .020 | .164 | .378 | 1.137 | .230 | .303 | .402 | .705 |
| Spencer Jones | 4.2 | .513 | .145 | .009 | .157 | .304 | 1.563 | .214 | .276 | .379 | .656 |
| José Caballero | 4.1 | .603 | .164 | .008 | .070 | .329 | .961 | .230 | .304 | .336 | .639 |
| Austin Wells | 4.0 | .488 | .144 | .008 | .132 | .342 | .998 | .215 | .290 | .371 | .661 |
| Anthony Volpe | 3.8 | .511 | .158 | .021 | .102 | .285 | .898 | .224 | .286 | .367 | .653 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.6 | .690 | .191 | .035 | .100 | .621 | .694 | .260 | .367 | .404 | .771 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.5 | .603 | .181 | .011 | .179 | .347 | 1.130 | .241 | .311 | .424 | .734 |
| Matt Vierling | 4.3 | .639 | .162 | .020 | .098 | .390 | 1.011 | .235 | .310 | .361 | .671 |
| Riley Greene | 4.3 | .596 | .181 | .012 | .165 | .463 | 1.239 | .254 | .341 | .441 | .782 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.2 | .441 | .153 | .006 | .165 | .505 | 1.230 | .213 | .317 | .396 | .714 |
| Jahmai Jones | 4.0 | .495 | .154 | .020 | .118 | .454 | 1.153 | .223 | .322 | .378 | .701 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 3.9 | .550 | .138 | .028 | .083 | .311 | .993 | .223 | .294 | .347 | .641 |
| Zach McKinstry | 3.8 | .506 | .121 | .047 | .064 | .398 | .865 | .218 | .307 | .339 | .646 |
| Ben Malgeri | 3.7 | .502 | .144 | .025 | .072 | .306 | 1.118 | .222 | .296 | .345 | .641 |
Data notes: away starter Carlos Rodón: only 39 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections