7.2% edge · Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox win
47.9%
Detroit Tigers win
52.1%
Fair line (home)
-109
Proj. total
8.09
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago White Sox (mean 4.03)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.05)
Totals
O/U line
6
Proj. total
8.09
Over
61.6%
Under
30.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 47.9% | -137 | +109 |
| Detroit Tigers | 52.1% | +113 | -109 |
Chicago White Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Antonacci | 4.7 | .866 | .182 | .037 | .052 | .423 | .735 | .271 | .356 | .370 | .726 |
| Miguel Vargas | 4.6 | .631 | .207 | .017 | .166 | .518 | .783 | .250 | .340 | .431 | .772 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 4.5 | .738 | .162 | .023 | .125 | .353 | .824 | .253 | .314 | .393 | .708 |
| Colson Montgomery | 4.4 | .544 | .151 | .010 | .199 | .374 | 1.199 | .228 | .305 | .421 | .726 |
| Randal Grichuk | 4.3 | .649 | .185 | .009 | .157 | .235 | .845 | .248 | .295 | .414 | .709 |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 4.2 | .618 | .151 | .014 | .112 | .307 | .793 | .232 | .296 | .366 | .661 |
| Braden Montgomery | 4.1 | .619 | .159 | .020 | .093 | .318 | 1.104 | .239 | .307 | .367 | .674 |
| Tristan Peters | 4.0 | .621 | .173 | .018 | .074 | .308 | .802 | .243 | .308 | .362 | .669 |
| Drew Romo | 3.9 | .562 | .132 | .011 | .105 | .218 | .889 | .224 | .275 | .354 | .629 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.6 | .707 | .192 | .037 | .099 | .649 | .672 | .265 | .374 | .408 | .783 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.5 | .640 | .187 | .012 | .157 | .367 | 1.052 | .246 | .319 | .414 | .732 |
| Matt Vierling | 4.4 | .678 | .172 | .020 | .090 | .415 | .959 | .244 | .322 | .367 | .689 |
| Riley Greene | 4.3 | .614 | .178 | .009 | .153 | .497 | 1.193 | .255 | .348 | .431 | .778 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.2 | .449 | .166 | .006 | .151 | .534 | 1.176 | .215 | .325 | .391 | .715 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 4.1 | .526 | .124 | .040 | .180 | .335 | 1.100 | .237 | .310 | .440 | .750 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 4.0 | .567 | .142 | .030 | .076 | .343 | .930 | .229 | .306 | .350 | .656 |
| Jake Rogers | 3.8 | .449 | .119 | .023 | .103 | .372 | 1.149 | .202 | .287 | .340 | .627 |
| Zach McKinstry | 3.7 | .510 | .119 | .045 | .060 | .406 | .790 | .225 | .317 | .343 | .661 |
Data notes: home starter Troy Melton: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Troy Melton: only 35 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Sean Newcomb: only 74 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections