3.6% edge · Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox win
31.8%
Detroit Tigers win
68.2%
Fair line (home)
-214
Proj. total
7.78
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago White Sox (mean 3.09)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.69)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
7.78
Over
39.1%
Under
53.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 31.8% | +176 | +214 |
| Detroit Tigers | 68.2% | -193 | -214 |
Chicago White Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | 4.6 | .582 | .184 | .018 | .147 | .426 | 1.068 | .226 | .306 | .387 | .693 |
| Randal Grichuk | 4.5 | .627 | .185 | .009 | .141 | .201 | 1.166 | .227 | .267 | .374 | .642 |
| Chase Meidroth | 4.4 | .749 | .144 | .005 | .060 | .370 | .952 | .243 | .315 | .328 | .643 |
| Colson Montgomery | 4.3 | .467 | .128 | .008 | .166 | .284 | 1.520 | .196 | .261 | .360 | .621 |
| Edgar Quero | 4.2 | .657 | .130 | .003 | .068 | .257 | 1.040 | .223 | .279 | .310 | .589 |
| Junior Perez | 4.0 | .444 | .137 | .023 | .080 | .264 | 1.567 | .181 | .239 | .294 | .533 |
| Sam Antonacci | 3.9 | .689 | .138 | .027 | .039 | .296 | .827 | .254 | .331 | .342 | .673 |
| Luisangel Acuña | 3.8 | .669 | .142 | .015 | .039 | .172 | .817 | .238 | .277 | .318 | .596 |
| Tristan Peters | 3.7 | .541 | .151 | .015 | .060 | .236 | .966 | .223 | .278 | .328 | .606 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.6 | .759 | .209 | .037 | .119 | .622 | .537 | .284 | .385 | .446 | .831 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.5 | .683 | .198 | .015 | .199 | .371 | .890 | .269 | .338 | .471 | .809 |
| Matt Vierling | 4.4 | .723 | .182 | .024 | .101 | .405 | .803 | .261 | .334 | .396 | .730 |
| Riley Greene | 4.3 | .680 | .201 | .011 | .189 | .482 | 1.002 | .287 | .372 | .496 | .868 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.2 | .500 | .175 | .007 | .178 | .530 | 1.031 | .238 | .343 | .438 | .781 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 4.1 | .578 | .136 | .043 | .224 | .326 | .914 | .265 | .332 | .506 | .838 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 4.0 | .595 | .151 | .034 | .098 | .343 | .805 | .245 | .317 | .388 | .706 |
| Colt Keith | 3.9 | .639 | .144 | .032 | .106 | .377 | .687 | .267 | .344 | .420 | .764 |
| Trei Cruz | 3.7 | .495 | .133 | .013 | .056 | .459 | .924 | .215 | .317 | .317 | .634 |
Data notes: home starter Tarik Skubal: only 41 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections