2.2% edge · Colorado Rockies
Boston Red Sox win
56.8%
Colorado Rockies win
43.2%
Fair line (home)
+131
Proj. total
10.67
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Boston Red Sox (mean 5.86)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.81)
Totals
O/U line
10.5
Proj. total
10.67
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 56.8% | -151 | -131 |
| Colorado Rockies | 43.2% | +139 | +131 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Eaton | 5.0 | .944 | .270 | .031 | .136 | .291 | .977 | .293 | .340 | .451 | .791 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.9 | .919 | .279 | .047 | .178 | .230 | .790 | .307 | .349 | .503 | .852 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.8 | .820 | .268 | .020 | .234 | .464 | .841 | .311 | .381 | .545 | .925 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.7 | .768 | .224 | .024 | .253 | .448 | .941 | .308 | .392 | .558 | .950 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.6 | .756 | .269 | .076 | .159 | .343 | .892 | .300 | .361 | .514 | .874 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.5 | .843 | .269 | .021 | .109 | .279 | .409 | .303 | .363 | .459 | .822 |
| Andruw Monasterio | 4.4 | .829 | .238 | .009 | .092 | .370 | .782 | .294 | .360 | .428 | .788 |
| Connor Wong | 4.3 | .787 | .238 | .011 | .110 | .280 | .821 | .292 | .347 | .441 | .788 |
| Anthony Seigler | 4.2 | .689 | .203 | .022 | .074 | .452 | .724 | .270 | .358 | .398 | .756 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.7 | .928 | .194 | .070 | .095 | .295 | .859 | .294 | .346 | .435 | .781 |
| Mickey Moniak | 4.6 | .746 | .204 | .061 | .205 | .217 | 1.136 | .280 | .320 | .496 | .816 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.5 | .644 | .220 | .025 | .251 | .284 | 1.246 | .274 | .326 | .519 | .845 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.4 | .796 | .200 | .015 | .128 | .347 | .834 | .286 | .350 | .440 | .790 |
| Tyler Freeman | 4.3 | .876 | .207 | .020 | .070 | .290 | .560 | .303 | .368 | .421 | .789 |
| Willi Castro | 4.2 | .732 | .189 | .030 | .086 | .297 | .985 | .274 | .340 | .407 | .747 |
| Troy Johnston | 4.1 | .750 | .207 | .022 | .088 | .257 | .869 | .285 | .339 | .422 | .761 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 4.0 | .692 | .218 | .020 | .114 | .197 | .971 | .280 | .321 | .442 | .762 |
| Edouard Julien | 3.8 | .616 | .152 | .019 | .095 | .466 | 1.095 | .264 | .358 | .406 | .764 |
Data notes: home starter Sean Sullivan: only 9 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Sean Sullivan: only 26 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections