1.6% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates win
66.0%
Colorado Rockies win
34.1%
Fair line (home)
+194
Proj. total
10.74
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 6.43)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.31)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
10.74
Over
48.4%
Under
44.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.0% | -201 | -194 |
| Colorado Rockies | 34.1% | +170 | +194 |
Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Horwitz | 5.1 | 1.031 | .296 | .018 | .182 | .521 | .578 | .335 | .409 | .527 | .936 |
| Brandon Lowe | 5.0 | .872 | .247 | .016 | .314 | .369 | .908 | .314 | .370 | .579 | .949 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4.9 | .961 | .249 | .033 | .206 | .410 | .824 | .327 | .392 | .538 | .931 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 4.8 | 1.014 | .241 | .016 | .211 | .368 | .632 | .338 | .395 | .544 | .939 |
| Nick Gonzales | 4.7 | 1.041 | .302 | .034 | .096 | .248 | .626 | .335 | .377 | .485 | .862 |
| Tyler Callihan | 4.6 | .843 | .235 | .028 | .127 | .317 | .925 | .292 | .345 | .451 | .796 |
| Jake Mangum | 4.5 | 1.099 | .251 | .018 | .051 | .190 | .556 | .336 | .371 | .440 | .811 |
| Jared Triolo | 4.3 | .875 | .212 | .023 | .087 | .396 | .720 | .305 | .374 | .438 | .812 |
| Henry Davis | 4.2 | .700 | .201 | .010 | .177 | .315 | .771 | .282 | .345 | .476 | .822 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.7 | .856 | .180 | .068 | .086 | .303 | .957 | .276 | .333 | .409 | .742 |
| Willi Castro | 4.6 | .759 | .184 | .028 | .086 | .326 | 1.231 | .256 | .327 | .376 | .703 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.5 | .755 | .192 | .015 | .121 | .370 | .981 | .269 | .340 | .415 | .755 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.3 | .588 | .203 | .022 | .221 | .276 | 1.351 | .257 | .311 | .482 | .793 |
| Troy Johnston | 4.2 | .748 | .209 | .020 | .091 | .263 | .989 | .273 | .328 | .406 | .734 |
| Cole Carrigg | 4.1 | .728 | .157 | .066 | .077 | .260 | 1.036 | .269 | .324 | .405 | .730 |
| Edouard Julien | 4.0 | .600 | .149 | .020 | .098 | .484 | 1.262 | .247 | .345 | .385 | .730 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 3.9 | .628 | .193 | .021 | .106 | .207 | 1.086 | .257 | .301 | .406 | .707 |
| Sterlin Thompson | 3.8 | .652 | .155 | .032 | .086 | .303 | .962 | .270 | .342 | .409 | .751 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections