3.3% edge · Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox win
57.6%
Colorado Rockies win
42.4%
Fair line (home)
+136
Proj. total
11.57
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Boston Red Sox (mean 6.35)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.22)
Totals
O/U line
11.5
Proj. total
11.57
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 57.6% | -124 | -136 |
| Colorado Rockies | 42.4% | +114 | +136 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gasper | 5.1 | .924 | .239 | .021 | .137 | .522 | .874 | .292 | .376 | .445 | .821 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 5.0 | .960 | .284 | .044 | .178 | .251 | .836 | .312 | .355 | .505 | .860 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.9 | .836 | .271 | .018 | .227 | .521 | .891 | .310 | .387 | .537 | .924 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.8 | .788 | .244 | .024 | .251 | .480 | .993 | .313 | .400 | .563 | .963 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.7 | .791 | .279 | .081 | .158 | .375 | .951 | .307 | .370 | .522 | .892 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.6 | .857 | .277 | .023 | .107 | .320 | .430 | .305 | .369 | .460 | .828 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 4.5 | .955 | .243 | .023 | .122 | .332 | .473 | .331 | .391 | .492 | .883 |
| Anthony Seigler | 4.3 | .721 | .214 | .029 | .086 | .522 | .767 | .277 | .371 | .417 | .788 |
| Marcelo Mayer | 4.2 | .767 | .249 | .021 | .129 | .290 | .708 | .298 | .351 | .471 | .821 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willi Castro | 4.8 | .904 | .223 | .025 | .101 | .342 | .926 | .289 | .358 | .421 | .779 |
| Tyler Freeman | 4.7 | .983 | .233 | .020 | .082 | .339 | .493 | .312 | .380 | .435 | .815 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.6 | .863 | .223 | .016 | .136 | .388 | .713 | .299 | .366 | .459 | .825 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.5 | .674 | .219 | .025 | .253 | .305 | 1.048 | .284 | .340 | .534 | .874 |
| Cole Carrigg | 4.3 | .854 | .185 | .053 | .094 | .254 | .808 | .293 | .342 | .435 | .777 |
| Jake McCarthy | 4.3 | .863 | .179 | .066 | .087 | .292 | .615 | .306 | .363 | .453 | .816 |
| Braxton Fulford | 4.2 | .675 | .213 | .026 | .125 | .343 | .984 | .277 | .347 | .448 | .795 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 4.0 | .715 | .234 | .023 | .129 | .215 | .852 | .290 | .333 | .466 | .799 |
| Kyle Karros | 3.9 | .744 | .208 | .013 | .072 | .392 | .755 | .297 | .373 | .426 | .800 |
Data notes: away starter Jake Bennett: only 19 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jake Bennett: only 66 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections