Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies

Bubba Chandler vs Kyle Freeland · 2026-06-19 · 83°F

0.5% edge · Colorado Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates win

55.9%

Colorado Rockies win

44.1%

Fair line (home)

+127

Proj. total

11.65

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 6.30)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.35)

O/U line

11.5

Proj. total

11.65

Over

46.3%

Under

53.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	55.9%	-135	-127
Colorado Rockies	44.1%	+125	+127

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	5.1	.991	.301	.018	.190	.519	.639	.331	.406	.531	.936
Nick Gonzales	5.0	1.107	.313	.036	.110	.269	.727	.335	.378	.488	.866
Bryan Reynolds	4.9	.941	.245	.025	.176	.389	.903	.313	.378	.499	.877
Ryan O'Hearn	4.8	.991	.233	.017	.202	.374	.700	.331	.389	.531	.920
Marcell Ozuna	4.7	.804	.197	.006	.230	.490	.933	.298	.377	.515	.892
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.756	.217	.016	.276	.354	.903	.303	.364	.562	.925
Endy Rodríguez	4.5	.812	.236	.009	.108	.346	.810	.286	.348	.428	.776
Jared Triolo	4.3	.859	.207	.019	.094	.394	.793	.302	.371	.436	.807
Billy Cook	4.2	.756	.198	.022	.130	.252	.952	.282	.332	.442	.774

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.920	.196	.070	.104	.413	.777	.296	.368	.445	.813
Willi Castro	4.7	.805	.200	.031	.111	.454	1.029	.276	.365	.420	.784
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.649	.218	.024	.271	.393	1.197	.278	.347	.536	.883
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.779	.200	.016	.137	.476	.786	.285	.370	.447	.816
Tyler Freeman	4.4	.862	.207	.020	.080	.390	.527	.302	.387	.428	.815
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.770	.164	.071	.099	.342	.905	.283	.350	.438	.788
Sterlin Thompson	4.2	.730	.178	.038	.108	.426	.888	.286	.372	.443	.816
Ezequiel Tovar	4.1	.691	.218	.026	.134	.268	.930	.282	.334	.459	.793
Kyle Karros	4.0	.698	.198	.013	.077	.464	.827	.286	.377	.418	.794

Data notes: home starter Kyle Freeland: only 53 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections