4.3% edge · Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners win
61.7%
Cleveland Guardians win
38.3%
Fair line (home)
+161
Proj. total
7.91
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Seattle Mariners (mean 4.58)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.33)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
7.91
Over
48.0%
Under
51.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 61.7% | -141 | -161 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 38.3% | +130 | +161 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | 4.8 | .746 | .180 | .005 | .120 | .539 | .912 | .249 | .340 | .379 | .719 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.7 | .758 | .194 | .014 | .237 | .298 | .976 | .277 | .330 | .492 | .822 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.6 | .686 | .198 | .003 | .209 | .314 | 1.019 | .258 | .314 | .454 | .768 |
| Randy Arozarena | 4.5 | .631 | .182 | .011 | .151 | .402 | 1.111 | .247 | .336 | .414 | .750 |
| Josh Naylor | 4.4 | .722 | .170 | .004 | .168 | .335 | .654 | .266 | .328 | .436 | .764 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.3 | .458 | .134 | .004 | .250 | .440 | 1.184 | .223 | .311 | .459 | .769 |
| Luke Raley | 4.2 | .542 | .142 | .014 | .184 | .268 | 1.258 | .234 | .305 | .425 | .730 |
| Cole Young | 4.0 | .648 | .162 | .021 | .077 | .345 | .737 | .249 | .322 | .368 | .690 |
| Colt Emerson | 3.9 | .544 | .152 | .019 | .108 | .301 | 1.031 | .230 | .299 | .373 | .672 |
Cleveland Guardians — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 4.5 | .838 | .184 | .010 | .073 | .396 | .519 | .271 | .340 | .375 | .715 |
| Travis Bazzana | 4.4 | .597 | .175 | .024 | .090 | .426 | 1.230 | .226 | .309 | .352 | .661 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 4.3 | .674 | .175 | .025 | .086 | .301 | .821 | .245 | .311 | .369 | .680 |
| Kyle Manzardo | 4.2 | .485 | .151 | .016 | .179 | .379 | 1.227 | .221 | .301 | .413 | .713 |
| Kahlil Watson | 4.1 | .481 | .130 | .016 | .126 | .297 | 1.423 | .202 | .269 | .346 | .615 |
| Cooper Ingle | 4.0 | .521 | .150 | .007 | .090 | .464 | 1.006 | .221 | .318 | .346 | .664 |
| Gabriel Arias | 3.9 | .510 | .155 | .017 | .105 | .213 | 1.317 | .218 | .269 | .358 | .627 |
| Patrick Bailey | 3.7 | .519 | .117 | .021 | .070 | .247 | 1.106 | .210 | .269 | .317 | .586 |
| Petey Halpin | 3.6 | .498 | .134 | .016 | .067 | .227 | 1.101 | .213 | .267 | .322 | .589 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections