Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians

Luis Castillo vs Joey Cantillo · 2026-06-26 · 70°F

7.2% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

57.0%

Cleveland Guardians win

43.0%

Fair line (home)

+132

Proj. total

7.79

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.33)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.46)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.79

Over

47.0%

Under

53.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	57.0%	-103	-132
Cleveland Guardians	43.0%	-105	+132

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.8	.631	.181	.010	.147	.584	1.294	.233	.343	.388	.730
Julio Rodríguez	4.7	.718	.183	.013	.202	.417	1.091	.262	.334	.453	.786
Cal Raleigh	4.6	.455	.130	.003	.226	.573	1.357	.204	.310	.408	.718
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.624	.178	.004	.173	.415	1.101	.241	.316	.414	.730
Josh Naylor	4.4	.677	.165	.005	.147	.462	.706	.255	.339	.413	.752
J.P. Crawford	4.3	.603	.141	.005	.089	.622	.901	.231	.349	.346	.695
Rob Refsnyder	4.2	.509	.142	.009	.114	.498	1.229	.212	.314	.349	.663
Cole Young	4.1	.605	.147	.018	.067	.448	.788	.234	.327	.341	.667
Colt Emerson	4.0	.523	.135	.016	.091	.393	1.099	.218	.305	.343	.648

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Travis Bazzana	4.5	.630	.188	.026	.093	.482	1.167	.235	.325	.365	.690
Kyle Manzardo	4.4	.540	.165	.018	.181	.434	1.188	.230	.315	.419	.733
Brayan Rocchio	4.3	.679	.173	.019	.088	.330	.740	.246	.318	.368	.686
Kahlil Watson	4.2	.527	.139	.018	.122	.335	1.375	.211	.281	.352	.633
Cooper Ingle	4.1	.560	.168	.009	.089	.512	.955	.232	.334	.359	.693
Daniel Schneemann	4.0	.526	.154	.009	.083	.368	1.138	.213	.291	.329	.620
Steven Kwan	3.9	.712	.146	.010	.060	.391	.397	.267	.346	.367	.713
Patrick Bailey	3.8	.537	.114	.018	.073	.268	1.045	.213	.275	.319	.594
Petey Halpin	3.6	.518	.135	.015	.064	.242	1.037	.216	.273	.321	.594

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections