0.5% edge · Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers win
49.3%
Cincinnati Reds win
50.7%
Fair line (home)
-103
Proj. total
9.96
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Milwaukee Brewers (mean 5.05)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.91)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.96
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 49.3% | +101 | +103 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 50.7% | -109 | -103 |
Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | 4.9 | .784 | .240 | .020 | .262 | .325 | 1.042 | .289 | .343 | .525 | .868 |
| Brice Turang | 4.8 | .795 | .180 | .021 | .161 | .504 | 1.058 | .273 | .355 | .440 | .794 |
| William Contreras | 4.7 | .785 | .203 | .006 | .202 | .514 | .828 | .290 | .374 | .489 | .863 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 4.6 | .701 | .190 | .012 | .201 | .328 | .890 | .265 | .328 | .461 | .789 |
| Jake Bauers | 4.5 | .543 | .153 | .006 | .245 | .539 | 1.234 | .246 | .347 | .480 | .827 |
| Gary Sánchez | 4.3 | .515 | .121 | .016 | .254 | .417 | 1.107 | .237 | .329 | .476 | .805 |
| Blake Perkins | 4.2 | .595 | .135 | .016 | .088 | .401 | 1.136 | .221 | .305 | .335 | .640 |
| Cooper Pratt | 4.1 | .606 | .134 | .029 | .084 | .381 | .835 | .232 | .316 | .353 | .669 |
| Joey Ortiz | 4.0 | .649 | .168 | .016 | .108 | .341 | .697 | .260 | .331 | .404 | .736 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Dunn | 4.7 | .762 | .150 | .017 | .101 | .431 | 1.222 | .248 | .335 | .365 | .700 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.6 | .692 | .189 | .044 | .202 | .487 | 1.164 | .279 | .362 | .497 | .859 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .552 | .191 | .015 | .228 | .589 | .940 | .256 | .359 | .492 | .851 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.3 | .671 | .195 | .004 | .192 | .494 | .817 | .278 | .366 | .482 | .848 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.3 | .639 | .145 | .010 | .177 | .544 | .981 | .264 | .364 | .454 | .818 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.2 | .496 | .156 | .003 | .253 | .400 | 1.186 | .246 | .332 | .496 | .828 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.0 | .699 | .168 | .016 | .131 | .292 | .825 | .273 | .332 | .433 | .765 |
| Jose Trevino | 3.9 | .645 | .155 | .005 | .111 | .268 | .606 | .252 | .309 | .389 | .698 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.8 | .657 | .140 | .034 | .078 | .245 | .781 | .259 | .316 | .384 | .700 |
Data notes: home starter Nick Lodolo: only 53 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections