2.6% edge · Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers win
55.5%
Cincinnati Reds win
44.5%
Fair line (home)
+125
Proj. total
9.93
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Milwaukee Brewers (mean 5.37)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.57)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.93
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 55.5% | -146 | -125 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 44.5% | +134 | +125 |
Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 5.0 | .808 | .176 | .016 | .203 | .562 | 1.161 | .276 | .364 | .463 | .827 |
| Jackson Chourio | 4.9 | .803 | .233 | .021 | .253 | .332 | .963 | .292 | .345 | .522 | .867 |
| Brice Turang | 4.7 | .794 | .180 | .022 | .163 | .536 | .974 | .277 | .362 | .447 | .810 |
| William Contreras | 4.6 | .784 | .197 | .006 | .195 | .528 | .760 | .291 | .376 | .486 | .862 |
| Jake Bauers | 4.5 | .567 | .164 | .006 | .249 | .558 | 1.189 | .252 | .352 | .487 | .839 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 4.4 | .604 | .169 | .027 | .150 | .501 | 1.385 | .245 | .339 | .419 | .758 |
| Sal Frelick | 4.3 | .820 | .174 | .018 | .100 | .374 | .543 | .285 | .355 | .416 | .770 |
| Joey Ortiz | 4.2 | .672 | .180 | .019 | .109 | .372 | .680 | .258 | .330 | .401 | .731 |
| David Hamilton | 4.1 | .584 | .135 | .028 | .123 | .368 | .946 | .236 | .310 | .387 | .698 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Dunn | 4.6 | .729 | .152 | .016 | .110 | .352 | 1.332 | .242 | .315 | .365 | .681 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .542 | .189 | .017 | .249 | .489 | 1.073 | .250 | .334 | .492 | .827 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.4 | .644 | .191 | .004 | .212 | .395 | .931 | .265 | .337 | .476 | .813 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.3 | .622 | .145 | .012 | .194 | .459 | 1.092 | .256 | .341 | .453 | .794 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.2 | .557 | .176 | .011 | .177 | .399 | .938 | .246 | .326 | .441 | .767 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.1 | .471 | .131 | .003 | .263 | .335 | 1.251 | .235 | .309 | .486 | .795 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.0 | .648 | .160 | .017 | .143 | .240 | .890 | .262 | .313 | .430 | .743 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 3.9 | .527 | .139 | .005 | .143 | .370 | 1.102 | .236 | .316 | .404 | .720 |
| Matt McLain | 3.7 | .494 | .143 | .004 | .139 | .362 | 1.037 | .234 | .317 | .405 | .722 |
Data notes: away starter Brandon Woodruff: only 68 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Brandon Woodruff: only 53 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections