0.9% edge · Cincinnati Reds
New York Mets win
54.0%
Cincinnati Reds win
46.0%
Fair line (home)
+117
Proj. total
9.98
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
New York Mets (mean 5.32)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.66)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.98
Over
48.9%
Under
40.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 54.0% | -127 | -117 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 46.0% | +117 | +117 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 4.9 | .797 | .187 | .023 | .188 | .383 | 1.082 | .269 | .338 | .448 | .786 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.8 | .894 | .213 | .018 | .185 | .316 | .831 | .295 | .348 | .476 | .824 |
| Juan Soto | 4.7 | .642 | .157 | .016 | .361 | .829 | .804 | .307 | .434 | .639 | 1.073 |
| Marcus Semien | 4.6 | .692 | .152 | .012 | .200 | .389 | .817 | .254 | .325 | .441 | .766 |
| Mark Vientos | 4.5 | .634 | .178 | .010 | .274 | .296 | 1.135 | .266 | .325 | .514 | .839 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 4.4 | .582 | .154 | .012 | .265 | .393 | 1.068 | .259 | .337 | .508 | .845 |
| A.J. Ewing | 4.3 | .748 | .169 | .028 | .060 | .410 | 1.068 | .263 | .342 | .370 | .711 |
| Luis Torrens | 4.2 | .610 | .181 | .011 | .139 | .267 | .936 | .246 | .308 | .408 | .717 |
| Zack Short | 4.0 | .451 | .134 | .006 | .103 | .466 | 1.204 | .197 | .302 | .326 | .628 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Arroyo | 4.7 | .790 | .171 | .039 | .094 | .295 | 1.046 | .254 | .313 | .377 | .691 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .541 | .193 | .015 | .219 | .584 | 1.052 | .246 | .347 | .469 | .817 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.4 | .667 | .196 | .004 | .180 | .479 | .931 | .267 | .352 | .457 | .809 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.3 | .639 | .150 | .011 | .164 | .562 | 1.072 | .258 | .360 | .436 | .796 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.2 | .505 | .151 | .004 | .246 | .405 | 1.298 | .242 | .329 | .482 | .811 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.1 | .575 | .172 | .010 | .161 | .461 | .899 | .254 | .348 | .441 | .789 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.0 | .660 | .166 | .015 | .131 | .280 | .895 | .263 | .323 | .422 | .745 |
| Jose Trevino | 3.9 | .632 | .152 | .004 | .105 | .255 | .673 | .246 | .303 | .378 | .681 |
| Matt McLain | 3.8 | .512 | .141 | .005 | .136 | .419 | 1.037 | .239 | .333 | .408 | .741 |
Data notes: home starter Nick Lodolo: only 44 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections