3.2% edge · New York Mets
New York Mets win
55.4%
Cincinnati Reds win
44.6%
Fair line (home)
+124
Proj. total
10.53
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
New York Mets (mean 5.69)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.84)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
10.53
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 55.4% | -114 | -124 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 44.6% | +105 | +124 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 5.0 | .820 | .203 | .025 | .189 | .412 | 1.037 | .275 | .344 | .457 | .801 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.9 | .926 | .215 | .015 | .186 | .325 | .770 | .298 | .350 | .477 | .826 |
| Juan Soto | 4.8 | .654 | .157 | .014 | .363 | .899 | .745 | .311 | .444 | .644 | 1.088 |
| Jared Young | 4.7 | .669 | .187 | .015 | .231 | .449 | 1.066 | .266 | .349 | .486 | .835 |
| A.J. Ewing | 4.5 | .799 | .189 | .033 | .066 | .454 | 1.069 | .268 | .346 | .379 | .726 |
| Marcus Semien | 4.4 | .672 | .153 | .011 | .191 | .406 | .749 | .257 | .330 | .444 | .774 |
| Brett Baty | 4.3 | .668 | .143 | .015 | .185 | .373 | 1.069 | .258 | .327 | .443 | .770 |
| MJ Melendez | 4.2 | .487 | .164 | .018 | .213 | .401 | 1.176 | .234 | .316 | .457 | .773 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 4.1 | .542 | .150 | .011 | .249 | .386 | .954 | .260 | .339 | .512 | .850 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Dunn | 4.7 | .749 | .148 | .015 | .109 | .463 | 1.313 | .245 | .334 | .366 | .700 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.6 | .536 | .189 | .018 | .228 | .636 | 1.041 | .246 | .353 | .476 | .829 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.5 | .678 | .198 | .004 | .197 | .531 | .918 | .273 | .364 | .476 | .840 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.4 | .624 | .150 | .011 | .181 | .583 | 1.066 | .256 | .359 | .445 | .804 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.3 | .493 | .150 | .003 | .255 | .438 | 1.288 | .238 | .326 | .481 | .808 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.2 | .554 | .166 | .011 | .169 | .510 | .889 | .249 | .349 | .441 | .789 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.1 | .553 | .150 | .006 | .150 | .484 | 1.111 | .241 | .339 | .413 | .752 |
| Matt McLain | 4.0 | .521 | .148 | .005 | .140 | .475 | 1.063 | .236 | .336 | .403 | .739 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.9 | .654 | .140 | .029 | .083 | .260 | .828 | .256 | .315 | .382 | .696 |
Data notes: away starter Kodai Senga: only 49 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Kodai Senga: only 48 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections