6.9% edge · New York Mets
New York Mets win
51.1%
Cincinnati Reds win
48.9%
Fair line (home)
+104
Proj. total
9.25
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
New York Mets (mean 4.80)Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.46)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.25
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 51.1% | +122 | -104 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 48.9% | -132 | +104 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 4.8 | .703 | .175 | .022 | .166 | .408 | 1.236 | .243 | .314 | .406 | .720 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.7 | .834 | .195 | .013 | .169 | .325 | .952 | .277 | .330 | .443 | .772 |
| Juan Soto | 4.6 | .589 | .141 | .013 | .320 | .862 | .909 | .285 | .422 | .587 | 1.009 |
| Jared Young | 4.5 | .596 | .164 | .013 | .199 | .416 | 1.253 | .241 | .319 | .436 | .755 |
| A.J. Ewing | 4.4 | .703 | .168 | .028 | .061 | .439 | 1.234 | .244 | .323 | .347 | .670 |
| Marcus Semien | 4.3 | .599 | .142 | .010 | .166 | .387 | .880 | .236 | .309 | .405 | .714 |
| Brett Baty | 4.2 | .592 | .133 | .011 | .158 | .359 | 1.210 | .235 | .305 | .401 | .706 |
| MJ Melendez | 4.1 | .432 | .143 | .015 | .186 | .375 | 1.338 | .212 | .291 | .412 | .703 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 4.0 | .480 | .126 | .008 | .228 | .372 | 1.098 | .238 | .316 | .471 | .787 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Dunn | 4.6 | .729 | .148 | .019 | .101 | .381 | 1.261 | .242 | .320 | .360 | .680 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .538 | .186 | .017 | .230 | .540 | 1.011 | .247 | .341 | .478 | .819 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.4 | .659 | .196 | .004 | .190 | .454 | .884 | .269 | .350 | .467 | .817 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.3 | .574 | .174 | .013 | .173 | .448 | .909 | .246 | .333 | .436 | .769 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.2 | .483 | .132 | .003 | .263 | .380 | 1.249 | .236 | .316 | .483 | .799 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.1 | .674 | .164 | .016 | .135 | .268 | .881 | .262 | .316 | .422 | .738 |
| Matt McLain | 4.0 | .523 | .151 | .005 | .144 | .425 | 1.047 | .235 | .325 | .405 | .730 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 3.9 | .513 | .146 | .005 | .134 | .417 | 1.043 | .235 | .325 | .399 | .724 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.7 | .625 | .126 | .030 | .080 | .218 | .798 | .249 | .302 | .372 | .674 |
Data notes: away starter Tobias Myers: only 59 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections