0.5% edge · Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays win
47.9%
Chicago Cubs win
52.1%
Fair line (home)
-109
Proj. total
8.71
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.38)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.33)
Totals
O/U line
7
Proj. total
8.71
Over
55.6%
Under
33.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 47.9% | +107 | +109 |
| Chicago Cubs | 52.1% | -116 | -109 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 4.8 | .668 | .169 | .010 | .168 | .530 | .991 | .238 | .329 | .401 | .730 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.7 | .780 | .205 | .003 | .188 | .604 | .646 | .289 | .386 | .479 | .865 |
| Jesús Sánchez | 4.6 | .653 | .195 | .014 | .152 | .398 | 1.114 | .242 | .314 | .405 | .719 |
| Yohendrick Piñango | 4.5 | .630 | .188 | .008 | .102 | .391 | 1.127 | .227 | .299 | .352 | .650 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 4.4 | .732 | .167 | .006 | .127 | .495 | .585 | .267 | .355 | .411 | .766 |
| Nathan Lukes | 4.3 | .764 | .182 | .015 | .079 | .355 | .711 | .266 | .334 | .382 | .715 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.2 | .540 | .149 | .004 | .168 | .381 | 1.026 | .229 | .306 | .404 | .710 |
| Davis Schneider | 4.1 | .417 | .131 | .010 | .116 | .643 | 1.238 | .199 | .334 | .346 | .680 |
| Andrés Giménez | 4.0 | .615 | .143 | .014 | .082 | .238 | .758 | .235 | .298 | .350 | .648 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.6 | .686 | .191 | .040 | .183 | .260 | 1.148 | .257 | .306 | .449 | .755 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.5 | .721 | .180 | .013 | .142 | .432 | .684 | .264 | .342 | .422 | .764 |
| Michael Busch | 4.4 | .594 | .170 | .028 | .183 | .449 | 1.095 | .251 | .334 | .450 | .785 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.3 | .638 | .178 | .019 | .167 | .409 | 1.108 | .261 | .335 | .447 | .782 |
| Ian Happ | 4.2 | .546 | .160 | .016 | .151 | .484 | 1.115 | .239 | .332 | .416 | .748 |
| Matt Shaw | 4.1 | .623 | .165 | .019 | .115 | .328 | .799 | .249 | .314 | .396 | .710 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.0 | .809 | .176 | .013 | .054 | .261 | .370 | .288 | .343 | .388 | .731 |
| Carson Kelly | 3.8 | .609 | .126 | .009 | .108 | .323 | .774 | .245 | .315 | .379 | .694 |
| Dansby Swanson | 3.7 | .560 | .133 | .017 | .106 | .313 | .952 | .241 | .308 | .385 | .693 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections