0.9% edge · Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays win
45.6%
Chicago Cubs win
54.4%
Fair line (home)
-119
Proj. total
9.05
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.41)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.63)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.05
Over
40.5%
Under
50.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 45.6% | +119 | +119 |
| Chicago Cubs | 54.4% | -129 | -119 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 4.8 | .728 | .182 | .010 | .184 | .478 | .837 | .258 | .339 | .434 | .773 |
| Nathan Lukes | 4.7 | .880 | .212 | .017 | .094 | .363 | .671 | .280 | .343 | .403 | .746 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.6 | .798 | .210 | .004 | .202 | .534 | .524 | .302 | .390 | .508 | .898 |
| Brandon Valenzuela | 4.5 | .609 | .154 | .007 | .123 | .369 | 1.051 | .218 | .288 | .349 | .637 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.4 | .598 | .174 | .005 | .198 | .366 | .915 | .246 | .317 | .442 | .758 |
| Daulton Varsho | 4.3 | .531 | .170 | .032 | .165 | .359 | .944 | .231 | .303 | .419 | .722 |
| Davis Schneider | 4.2 | .458 | .146 | .012 | .127 | .620 | 1.110 | .213 | .339 | .370 | .710 |
| Andrés Giménez | 4.1 | .665 | .164 | .015 | .090 | .232 | .671 | .250 | .310 | .375 | .685 |
| Myles Straw | 3.9 | .654 | .144 | .012 | .038 | .316 | .695 | .236 | .301 | .314 | .615 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.7 | .720 | .202 | .045 | .194 | .273 | 1.026 | .269 | .322 | .472 | .794 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.5 | .959 | .209 | .016 | .059 | .305 | .357 | .298 | .355 | .399 | .753 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.4 | .681 | .182 | .021 | .178 | .468 | 1.015 | .271 | .353 | .464 | .817 |
| Michael Busch | 4.3 | .613 | .173 | .030 | .179 | .468 | .965 | .262 | .350 | .465 | .815 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.2 | .685 | .175 | .013 | .136 | .442 | .568 | .270 | .354 | .433 | .787 |
| Ian Happ | 4.1 | .572 | .173 | .010 | .138 | .471 | 1.002 | .247 | .340 | .415 | .755 |
| Matt Shaw | 4.0 | .640 | .173 | .022 | .122 | .344 | .699 | .263 | .332 | .423 | .756 |
| Miguel Amaya | 3.9 | .610 | .152 | .009 | .111 | .301 | .747 | .250 | .321 | .393 | .714 |
| Dansby Swanson | 3.8 | .578 | .137 | .017 | .112 | .342 | .858 | .248 | .320 | .397 | .717 |
Data notes: away starter Patrick Corbin: only 63 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections