2.7% edge · Chicago Cubs
Colorado Rockies win
32.9%
Chicago Cubs win
67.1%
Fair line (home)
-204
Proj. total
9.62
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Colorado Rockies (mean 4.02)Chicago Cubs (mean 5.61)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
9.62
Over
38.5%
Under
54.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 32.9% | +175 | +204 |
| Chicago Cubs | 67.1% | -192 | -204 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.8 | .826 | .183 | .058 | .083 | .370 | .882 | .266 | .333 | .392 | .726 |
| Willi Castro | 4.7 | .705 | .174 | .028 | .091 | .415 | 1.152 | .242 | .327 | .363 | .691 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.5 | .720 | .174 | .013 | .116 | .442 | .895 | .253 | .335 | .388 | .723 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.4 | .550 | .182 | .020 | .217 | .335 | 1.272 | .239 | .304 | .454 | .758 |
| Troy Johnston | 4.3 | .722 | .186 | .021 | .085 | .327 | .943 | .257 | .324 | .380 | .704 |
| Cole Carrigg | 4.2 | .682 | .145 | .058 | .076 | .317 | .971 | .249 | .315 | .377 | .691 |
| Brett Sullivan | 4.1 | .588 | .165 | .031 | .064 | .305 | .777 | .224 | .288 | .335 | .623 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 4.0 | .597 | .186 | .018 | .107 | .243 | 1.032 | .244 | .295 | .390 | .685 |
| Edouard Julien | 3.9 | .531 | .129 | .017 | .088 | .544 | 1.149 | .231 | .345 | .360 | .705 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.8 | .814 | .233 | .055 | .207 | .316 | .948 | .299 | .355 | .519 | .874 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.7 | .832 | .209 | .015 | .154 | .511 | .547 | .296 | .381 | .467 | .849 |
| Michael Busch | 4.5 | .692 | .214 | .036 | .199 | .547 | .927 | .290 | .384 | .515 | .899 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.4 | .749 | .209 | .021 | .183 | .503 | .924 | .297 | .381 | .502 | .883 |
| Ian Happ | 4.3 | .649 | .196 | .021 | .158 | .591 | .934 | .277 | .382 | .470 | .852 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.2 | .949 | .222 | .016 | .064 | .313 | .291 | .324 | .383 | .440 | .823 |
| Matt Shaw | 4.1 | .720 | .181 | .019 | .129 | .385 | .647 | .284 | .358 | .449 | .807 |
| Miguel Amaya | 4.0 | .672 | .179 | .012 | .121 | .351 | .695 | .274 | .350 | .432 | .782 |
| Dansby Swanson | 3.9 | .656 | .157 | .021 | .135 | .370 | .801 | .277 | .350 | .449 | .799 |
Data notes: away starter Ryan Feltner: only 71 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections