1.3% edge · Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies win
37.1%
Chicago Cubs win
62.8%
Fair line (home)
-169
Proj. total
9.78
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Colorado Rockies (mean 4.37)Chicago Cubs (mean 5.40)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
9.78
Over
40.6%
Under
52.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 37.1% | +173 | +169 |
| Chicago Cubs | 62.8% | -190 | -169 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.8 | .856 | .176 | .062 | .084 | .357 | .795 | .266 | .330 | .391 | .721 |
| Tyler Freeman | 4.7 | .884 | .201 | .019 | .069 | .358 | .553 | .277 | .351 | .382 | .733 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.6 | .749 | .191 | .015 | .118 | .421 | .808 | .259 | .336 | .398 | .734 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.5 | .589 | .206 | .022 | .216 | .323 | 1.176 | .249 | .310 | .466 | .776 |
| Cole Carrigg | 4.4 | .750 | .155 | .065 | .078 | .309 | .917 | .260 | .320 | .388 | .709 |
| Edouard Julien | 4.3 | .627 | .146 | .020 | .098 | .592 | 1.131 | .243 | .354 | .374 | .728 |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 4.2 | .650 | .202 | .022 | .109 | .236 | .983 | .250 | .297 | .396 | .693 |
| Sterlin Thompson | 4.1 | .670 | .159 | .029 | .085 | .366 | .875 | .259 | .338 | .389 | .727 |
| Kyle Karros | 4.0 | .657 | .179 | .013 | .071 | .407 | .852 | .261 | .343 | .380 | .722 |
Chicago Cubs — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 4.8 | .799 | .234 | .051 | .215 | .298 | .920 | .296 | .350 | .520 | .869 |
| Nico Hoerner | 4.6 | 1.023 | .230 | .018 | .069 | .327 | .304 | .316 | .374 | .427 | .801 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 4.5 | .759 | .212 | .022 | .189 | .492 | .923 | .296 | .377 | .501 | .879 |
| Michael Busch | 4.4 | .665 | .195 | .035 | .197 | .501 | .878 | .284 | .374 | .506 | .881 |
| Alex Bregman | 4.3 | .757 | .191 | .015 | .145 | .440 | .502 | .290 | .371 | .462 | .833 |
| Ian Happ | 4.2 | .627 | .188 | .015 | .158 | .505 | .902 | .270 | .366 | .459 | .825 |
| Matt Shaw | 4.1 | .706 | .192 | .023 | .134 | .359 | .621 | .285 | .355 | .457 | .812 |
| Carson Kelly | 4.0 | .727 | .150 | .009 | .118 | .372 | .620 | .281 | .355 | .427 | .782 |
| Dansby Swanson | 3.9 | .637 | .157 | .021 | .123 | .359 | .792 | .268 | .340 | .431 | .771 |
Data notes: home starter Javier Assad: only 71 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Sean Sullivan: only 3 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Sean Sullivan: only 9 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections