New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

Will Warren vs Payton Tolle · 2026-06-26 · 78°F

31.3% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

49.3%

Boston Red Sox win

50.7%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

8.19

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.17)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.02)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

8.19

Over

33.2%

Under

66.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	49.3%	+430	+103
Boston Red Sox	50.7%	-605	-103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.8	.767	.202	.014	.161	.412	1.066	.265	.333	.430	.763
Amed Rosario	4.7	.870	.197	.026	.106	.225	.930	.273	.313	.402	.715
Cody Bellinger	4.5	.731	.166	.036	.173	.428	.694	.271	.343	.456	.799
Jasson Domínguez	4.4	.740	.159	.008	.129	.364	1.085	.257	.324	.397	.721
José Caballero	4.3	.644	.173	.008	.079	.392	1.060	.234	.316	.345	.661
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.576	.126	.018	.183	.403	1.150	.238	.315	.425	.740
Anthony Volpe	4.1	.548	.180	.023	.116	.332	.997	.231	.298	.383	.681
Spencer Jones	4.0	.507	.140	.010	.161	.307	1.525	.224	.289	.400	.688
Ali Sánchez	3.9	.560	.122	.007	.086	.285	1.024	.217	.279	.328	.606

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mickey Gasper	4.6	.691	.169	.015	.103	.487	1.007	.242	.334	.368	.701
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.717	.212	.035	.126	.246	.958	.260	.310	.418	.728
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.638	.192	.014	.166	.465	1.028	.260	.342	.445	.786
Willson Contreras	4.3	.599	.168	.018	.169	.431	1.106	.256	.350	.446	.796
Jarren Duran	4.2	.582	.198	.051	.113	.345	1.063	.250	.321	.420	.740
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.650	.203	.018	.077	.291	.503	.258	.328	.385	.713
Anthony Seigler	4.0	.538	.152	.023	.057	.490	.866	.225	.329	.334	.663
Connor Wong	3.8	.605	.178	.010	.079	.281	.954	.248	.312	.372	.684
Tsung-Che Cheng	3.7	.504	.132	.024	.045	.348	.989	.210	.289	.304	.593

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections