5.0% edge · New York Yankees
New York Yankees win
52.4%
Boston Red Sox win
47.6%
Fair line (home)
+110
Proj. total
8.26
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
New York Yankees (mean 4.37)Boston Red Sox (mean 3.89)
Totals
O/U line
7.75
Proj. total
8.26
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 52.4% | -100 | -110 |
| Boston Red Sox | 47.6% | -125 | +110 |
New York Yankees — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | 4.8 | .841 | .224 | .014 | .126 | .406 | .934 | .273 | .339 | .415 | .755 |
| Ben Rice | 4.7 | .659 | .203 | .031 | .197 | .520 | .902 | .262 | .351 | .467 | .818 |
| Amed Rosario | 4.6 | .931 | .203 | .027 | .086 | .223 | .766 | .285 | .325 | .403 | .728 |
| Cody Bellinger | 4.5 | .769 | .189 | .036 | .139 | .418 | .580 | .278 | .349 | .445 | .794 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 4.4 | .768 | .173 | .007 | .109 | .387 | .909 | .265 | .336 | .394 | .729 |
| José Caballero | 4.3 | .691 | .179 | .009 | .066 | .391 | .887 | .246 | .327 | .349 | .676 |
| Max Schuemann | 4.2 | .633 | .150 | .018 | .047 | .466 | .886 | .231 | .327 | .319 | .646 |
| Anthony Volpe | 4.1 | .581 | .181 | .021 | .093 | .335 | .867 | .235 | .303 | .370 | .672 |
| Austin Wells | 4.0 | .532 | .157 | .010 | .122 | .383 | .893 | .231 | .312 | .384 | .696 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida | 4.6 | .827 | .202 | .018 | .117 | .308 | .632 | .278 | .338 | .419 | .757 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.5 | .700 | .207 | .031 | .129 | .200 | .947 | .254 | .298 | .411 | .709 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.3 | .629 | .187 | .013 | .167 | .428 | .995 | .256 | .332 | .439 | .771 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.2 | .572 | .168 | .017 | .175 | .390 | 1.088 | .250 | .341 | .446 | .786 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.1 | .578 | .203 | .051 | .112 | .305 | 1.040 | .250 | .314 | .420 | .734 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.0 | .648 | .201 | .017 | .075 | .262 | .507 | .256 | .322 | .381 | .702 |
| Anthony Seigler | 3.9 | .528 | .148 | .022 | .063 | .439 | .880 | .221 | .316 | .332 | .648 |
| Carlos Narváez | 3.8 | .500 | .152 | .004 | .103 | .351 | 1.033 | .222 | .301 | .359 | .660 |
| Tsung-Che Cheng | 3.7 | .494 | .131 | .024 | .044 | .314 | .981 | .207 | .279 | .299 | .579 |
Data notes: home starter Jake Bennett: only 32 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Gerrit Cole: only 53 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections