8.4% edge · Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays win
54.2%
Boston Red Sox win
45.8%
Fair line (home)
+118
Proj. total
9.22
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.95)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.27)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.22
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 54.2% | +114 | -118 |
| Boston Red Sox | 45.8% | -124 | +118 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 4.9 | .810 | .207 | .010 | .171 | .483 | .804 | .272 | .350 | .440 | .790 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.8 | .882 | .245 | .004 | .185 | .553 | .544 | .312 | .398 | .504 | .902 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.7 | .713 | .205 | .006 | .192 | .376 | .943 | .260 | .326 | .445 | .771 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 4.6 | .857 | .189 | .009 | .129 | .468 | .503 | .289 | .367 | .434 | .801 |
| Ernie Clement | 4.5 | .939 | .247 | .019 | .081 | .184 | .396 | .300 | .332 | .423 | .755 |
| Jesús Sánchez | 4.4 | .732 | .218 | .016 | .135 | .340 | .892 | .274 | .336 | .437 | .773 |
| Davis Schneider | 4.3 | .521 | .163 | .014 | .121 | .618 | 1.119 | .226 | .345 | .380 | .725 |
| Myles Straw | 4.2 | .769 | .169 | .016 | .034 | .336 | .707 | .259 | .322 | .338 | .660 |
| Andrés Giménez | 4.0 | .716 | .177 | .018 | .083 | .223 | .634 | .265 | .321 | .388 | .709 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gasper | 4.7 | .726 | .186 | .016 | .087 | .482 | 1.016 | .248 | .338 | .365 | .703 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.5 | .745 | .227 | .035 | .117 | .233 | 1.005 | .264 | .312 | .417 | .729 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.4 | .667 | .208 | .014 | .150 | .478 | 1.043 | .264 | .347 | .439 | .786 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.3 | .619 | .180 | .017 | .161 | .451 | 1.133 | .260 | .358 | .446 | .804 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.2 | .596 | .215 | .057 | .103 | .349 | 1.082 | .253 | .323 | .420 | .743 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 4.1 | .765 | .187 | .014 | .089 | .318 | .578 | .282 | .349 | .412 | .760 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 4.0 | .787 | .160 | .020 | .040 | .228 | .673 | .269 | .319 | .355 | .674 |
| Andruw Monasterio | 3.9 | .645 | .189 | .006 | .065 | .354 | .901 | .257 | .332 | .370 | .701 |
| Marcelo Mayer | 3.8 | .598 | .190 | .015 | .085 | .282 | .820 | .255 | .316 | .391 | .707 |
Data notes: home starter Jake Bennett: only 15 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jake Bennett: only 50 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Braydon Fisher: only 74 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections