Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

Trey Yesavage vs Sonny Gray · 2026-06-18 · 73°F

5.5% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

49.4%

Boston Red Sox win

50.6%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

8.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.34)Boston Red Sox (mean 4.19)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

8.53

Over

36.2%

Under

63.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	49.4%	+124	+103
Boston Red Sox	50.6%	-134	-103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
George Springer	4.8	.751	.193	.008	.161	.435	.984	.257	.330	.417	.747
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.854	.233	.004	.169	.515	.651	.304	.386	.485	.870
Jesús Sánchez	4.6	.731	.220	.016	.138	.325	1.125	.260	.318	.417	.735
Yohendrick Piñango	4.5	.713	.208	.009	.097	.335	1.081	.249	.310	.375	.685
Ernie Clement	4.4	.875	.230	.024	.075	.177	.465	.289	.322	.409	.731
Nathan Lukes	4.3	.802	.206	.017	.070	.328	.707	.281	.342	.396	.738
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.590	.165	.005	.166	.329	1.010	.244	.311	.422	.733
Brandon Valenzuela	4.0	.565	.142	.007	.093	.307	1.101	.217	.282	.335	.616
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.667	.160	.016	.080	.195	.750	.252	.303	.370	.673

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mickey Gasper	4.6	.693	.180	.018	.096	.532	1.051	.244	.342	.369	.711
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.5	.724	.207	.033	.116	.258	1.045	.256	.308	.404	.711
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.632	.197	.014	.148	.522	1.072	.256	.348	.430	.777
Willson Contreras	4.3	.594	.174	.016	.168	.457	1.176	.254	.352	.444	.796
Jarren Duran	4.2	.590	.209	.050	.104	.386	1.130	.252	.328	.416	.745
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4.1	.810	.160	.015	.040	.261	.721	.269	.323	.351	.674
Caleb Durbin	4.0	.638	.204	.017	.073	.325	.531	.260	.337	.388	.725
Connor Wong	3.9	.619	.177	.007	.073	.304	1.015	.248	.315	.364	.679
Andruw Monasterio	3.8	.611	.175	.007	.057	.377	.895	.254	.335	.361	.696

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections