4.1% edge · Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays win
55.8%
Boston Red Sox win
44.2%
Fair line (home)
+126
Proj. total
8.55
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.66)Boston Red Sox (mean 3.89)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.55
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 55.8% | -112 | -126 |
| Boston Red Sox | 44.2% | +103 | +126 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 4.9 | .734 | .185 | .009 | .190 | .485 | .991 | .257 | .338 | .435 | .773 |
| Ernie Clement | 4.8 | .923 | .247 | .023 | .097 | .205 | .511 | .285 | .320 | .414 | .734 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.6 | .799 | .213 | .004 | .203 | .556 | .636 | .301 | .390 | .505 | .895 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 4.5 | .791 | .183 | .006 | .147 | .460 | .616 | .279 | .357 | .436 | .793 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.4 | .621 | .168 | .006 | .200 | .363 | 1.067 | .246 | .315 | .439 | .754 |
| Nathan Lukes | 4.3 | .802 | .203 | .018 | .083 | .334 | .708 | .280 | .341 | .403 | .744 |
| Davis Schneider | 4.2 | .461 | .148 | .011 | .129 | .608 | 1.267 | .210 | .333 | .366 | .699 |
| Andrés Giménez | 4.1 | .700 | .171 | .018 | .095 | .224 | .768 | .258 | .312 | .387 | .699 |
| Myles Straw | 4.0 | .671 | .148 | .014 | .038 | .326 | .819 | .239 | .304 | .319 | .623 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida | 4.6 | .817 | .205 | .021 | .096 | .367 | .777 | .274 | .342 | .402 | .744 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.5 | .703 | .201 | .033 | .112 | .243 | 1.144 | .251 | .300 | .394 | .694 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.4 | .615 | .188 | .013 | .142 | .468 | 1.219 | .247 | .330 | .411 | .742 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.3 | .561 | .163 | .019 | .157 | .432 | 1.285 | .241 | .336 | .421 | .758 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.2 | .557 | .199 | .056 | .101 | .354 | 1.222 | .241 | .313 | .404 | .716 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.1 | .650 | .208 | .017 | .069 | .305 | .644 | .258 | .330 | .381 | .711 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 4.0 | .761 | .158 | .017 | .037 | .237 | .776 | .264 | .315 | .347 | .662 |
| Marcelo Mayer | 3.8 | .566 | .186 | .012 | .085 | .281 | .952 | .240 | .302 | .372 | .673 |
| Connor Wong | 3.7 | .558 | .164 | .007 | .068 | .272 | 1.076 | .234 | .298 | .347 | .645 |
Data notes: home starter Payton Tolle: only 61 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections