Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles

Andrew Alvarez vs Trevor Rogers · 2026-06-26 · 84°F

4.8% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

45.2%

Baltimore Orioles win

54.8%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

9.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.80)Baltimore Orioles (mean 5.08)

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

9.88

Over

75.8%

Under

24.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	45.2%	+136	+121
Baltimore Orioles	54.8%	-166	-121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.8	.676	.221	.008	.261	.625	1.275	.279	.376	.522	.898
Curtis Mead	4.7	.775	.228	.019	.161	.356	.848	.274	.338	.448	.786
Andrés Chaparro	4.6	.654	.215	.006	.196	.376	.972	.254	.320	.448	.768
CJ Abrams	4.5	.736	.202	.036	.179	.311	.789	.279	.340	.476	.816
Dylan Crews	4.4	.686	.177	.026	.162	.293	.905	.259	.317	.435	.752
Daylen Lile	4.3	.776	.193	.062	.115	.285	.671	.288	.341	.455	.795
Jacob Young	4.2	.780	.160	.026	.086	.265	.683	.271	.325	.391	.716
Nasim Nuñez	4.1	.709	.110	.011	.047	.343	.859	.236	.306	.310	.616
Keibert Ruiz	4.0	.698	.177	.003	.125	.167	.423	.267	.305	.416	.721

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.7	.704	.195	.010	.163	.669	.940	.267	.378	.443	.820
Gunnar Henderson	4.6	.710	.208	.029	.201	.515	.875	.283	.369	.498	.867
Pete Alonso	4.5	.626	.192	.006	.246	.517	.910	.274	.369	.515	.884
Coby Mayo	4.4	.582	.188	.011	.203	.447	1.119	.253	.336	.463	.799
Tyler O'Neill	4.3	.588	.145	.012	.179	.511	1.068	.248	.346	.437	.783
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.605	.168	.012	.199	.396	.923	.262	.337	.471	.808
Leody Taveras	4.1	.675	.146	.021	.097	.342	.784	.253	.319	.382	.701
Jackson Holliday	4.0	.618	.148	.025	.110	.471	.799	.261	.354	.413	.767
Blaze Alexander	3.8	.602	.152	.017	.097	.360	.992	.254	.338	.394	.732

Data notes: away starter Andrew Alvarez: only 41 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections