0.4% edge · Baltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals win
49.0%
Baltimore Orioles win
51.0%
Fair line (home)
-104
Proj. total
9.18
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Washington Nationals (mean 4.64)Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.54)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.18
Over
42.3%
Under
47.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 49.0% | -102 | +104 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 51.0% | -107 | -104 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.8 | .666 | .219 | .007 | .273 | .604 | 1.304 | .277 | .372 | .528 | .900 |
| Luis García Jr. | 4.7 | .856 | .220 | .029 | .188 | .220 | .642 | .288 | .323 | .476 | .799 |
| José Tena | 4.6 | .796 | .213 | .025 | .112 | .305 | 1.093 | .268 | .320 | .408 | .729 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.5 | .708 | .207 | .034 | .190 | .297 | .792 | .276 | .335 | .481 | .816 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.4 | .677 | .172 | .024 | .167 | .278 | .898 | .256 | .311 | .433 | .744 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.3 | .746 | .193 | .060 | .120 | .271 | .698 | .281 | .332 | .450 | .782 |
| Jorbit Vivas | 4.2 | .687 | .172 | .009 | .063 | .373 | .594 | .249 | .328 | .350 | .679 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 4.1 | .704 | .108 | .021 | .052 | .353 | .850 | .240 | .310 | .324 | .634 |
| Drew Millas | 3.9 | .654 | .138 | .028 | .079 | .281 | .658 | .247 | .306 | .366 | .672 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.6 | .703 | .190 | .010 | .176 | .536 | .970 | .269 | .362 | .453 | .815 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.5 | .699 | .202 | .029 | .204 | .420 | .902 | .282 | .357 | .498 | .855 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.4 | .625 | .187 | .005 | .256 | .401 | .939 | .274 | .353 | .521 | .874 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.3 | .582 | .188 | .015 | .199 | .359 | 1.129 | .254 | .325 | .463 | .788 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.2 | .571 | .138 | .010 | .180 | .416 | 1.102 | .242 | .326 | .430 | .756 |
| Blaze Alexander | 4.1 | .648 | .159 | .018 | .096 | .314 | 1.088 | .250 | .324 | .382 | .706 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.0 | .680 | .145 | .022 | .093 | .265 | .797 | .255 | .308 | .382 | .691 |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 3.9 | .631 | .182 | .010 | .140 | .165 | .797 | .264 | .301 | .434 | .734 |
| Chadwick Tromp | 3.7 | .545 | .136 | .008 | .088 | .244 | .902 | .224 | .279 | .344 | .623 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections